Sergienko Yulia Sergeevna

Faculty: Computer engineering and information science

Speciality: Economical cybernetics

Group: ECY-01b

Subject of a master's thesis:

Regression model
for production volumes optimization

Scientific adviser: senior lecturer Smirnov Aleksandr Vladimirovich

E-mail: ula1984@list.ru


Abstract

  1. Introduction
  2. Problem description
  3. Review of existing researches and working
  4. Scientific novelty and practical value
  5. Conclusions
  6. References
Introduction

          The present stage of development of our country differs dynamism and qualitative changes in all spheres of a public life. Such situation puts high requirements to skill of heads to operate the enterprise at presence of a plenty of competitors, which already have corresponding knowledge, and practice of operation of business in these conditions. Therefore one of the major problems is the problem of management of the modern enterprise in new, market conditions that quickly vary.

          Economic-mathematical modelling is one of effective methods of the description complex socially - economic objects and processes as mathematical models. Models, as a rule, are under construction on the basis of the statistical data.

          In economic researches often solve a problem of revealing of the factors determining a level and dynamics of economic process. Such problem is solved by methods of correlation, the factorial and regression analysis more often. Regression analysis consists in definition of analytical expression of connection in which change of a productive attribute is caused by influence of one or several factorial attributes, and the set of all other factors is applied for constants (or average) sizes.

          Very much frequently regression analysis is base at construction of mathematical models of forecasting of productions. Advantage of such models consists that they allow estimating so-called hypothetical variants of a situation.

Problem description

          One of the main purpose of functioning of any industrial enterprise is reception of the maximal profit that is always connected to necessity of perfection of the organization of manufacture. Methods of planning used now at the domestic enterprises, the organizations and production managements of production frequently are economically not proved and as consequence, do not give expected economic result.

          In this connection questions of an establishment of optimum volume of manufacture get paramount value not only from positions of necessity of reception by the enterprise of a maximum of the profit, but also from positions of efficient control the enterprise as a whole and its structural divisions.

          Thus, the purpose of master’s work is optimization of industrial output at the enterprise.

          Optimization is carried out on the basis of a classical problem of optimization of industrial output, which make homogeneous production. Such volume of production at which total cost per unit are minimal is optimum.

Review of existing researches and working

          The analysis of a condition of a question of definition of optimum volume of production in the scientific literature and in practice of industrial - economic activities of the enterprises has shown, that the theory and methodology of its formation demands essential completion.

          The volume of production and the offer of the goods is determined by technological and economic operating conditions of manufacturers. In works of scientists - economists existing to the present time maximization of the profit, as a rule, is considered on the basis of production functions. In them dependence between real (physical) volumes of resources used in production and the greatest possible output is determined thus. The essence of methods of definition of optimum volume of production offered by authors consists in the following.

          The volume of release maximizing profit depends on technological and economic conditions of functioning of the enterprise. The first are displayed by a curve of the general release, and economic conditions are represented as a line of the equal profit.

          Each point of a line of the profit specifies such combination of volume of production and resources, which provides the set volume of the profit. To each volume of the profit there correspond the certain technological and economic conditions.

          Imposing of a map of lines of the profit on a curve of the general release combines technological and economic operating conditions of the enterprise. The point of a contact of such lines determines the volume of release maximizing profit in developed conditions.

          However the offered approach to definition of a maximum of the profit is theoretical in the greater measure.

Scientific novelty and practical value

          The used approach to optimization of volume of production is theoretical in the greater measure and has no practical sense as in connection with sluggishness manufactures the optimum volume of production is multiple and the head never can make exactly so much production, the given model how many assumes.

          For realization of a task in view in practice it is necessary to expand an interval of optimum volume of manufacture, as it will be executed during work.

Conclusions

          The basic result is the choice of economic-mathematical model of definition of optimum volume of production. The correct choice of criterion of optimality is much important also. In each concrete case it is necessary to prove it’s composed.

          The conducted analysis allows speaking, that optimization of manufacture is the major problem of work of the enterprise. However the detailed analysis of technical and economic parameters of work of the enterprise that will allow optimizing parameters of production should precede optimum volume planning of manufacture.

          The volume of output depends as on factors of the internal environment formed at the enterprise, and from factors of an environment. These factors should be represented as restrictions, which are necessary for taking into account during development of the plan of manufacture.

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