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Aiko Oleg
"Influence of crisis of liquidity the USA on Ukrainian and world economic"
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In the world crisis. Financial, economic, power and so forth. Only lazy today has not told about it. Both increase of the prices, falling of dollar, and prompt rise in price of energy carriers - all speaks the global reasons. The economic, really, sustains serious losses.
Financial world crisis began in the USA in the summer of 2007 because of a wave of defaults under non-standard hypothecary credits, and then and was distributed to all debt market, having caused increase of rates and decrease in availability of credits, and then growth of unemployment and falling of consumer charges.
The most obvious consequence became decrease in a dollar exchange rate to euro almost on 20 % for 10 months. That has in turn led to to a quick rise in prices on oil, and - finally - to growth of inflation in the USA and in less developed countries.
Having imposed on local tendencies, crisis has provoked high rates of inflation to territories of the CIS and in a number of the countries of Southeast Asia. The major factor which could start the mechanism of long world crisis, would began negative economic growth in the USA during two and more quarters on end.
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Crisis in the USA: factors of influence on the Ukrainian share market
Last 8-10 months the world financial system arrives in a condition of a pressure. Hypothecary crisis in the USA first has burst. The real estate has fallen in price. Then the share markets have started "to be blown off". After Nasdaq were followed Japanese Nikkei, Russian RTS, Hang Seng, Chinese Shanghai Composit, with German DAX, French CAC40 and tens fineer indexes worldwide.
Experts argue the reasons of the arisen world shocks. One specify consequences of hypothecary crisis in the USA and arisen in this connection serious problems at conducting American banks. Others consider, that a problem in a serious divergence between parameters of profitability of the companies and their capitalizations - that is market cost at a stock exchange.
Crisis has not passed over also the Ukrainian share market. PFTS - stock exchange in Ukraine from the beginning of 2008 has lost more than 20 % of the index. Even when the situation in the world markets was stabilized, PFTS continued to fall. It is possible to explain it to that players at a stock exchange have borrowed{occupied} a waiting attitude and do not hasten to participate in the tenders actively. As in Ukraine there were only internal players, and all foreigners have run up, thinking that Ukraine too risky (however and too profitable) the country.
Ukraine stock exchange PFTS. half of 2008 year
file pfts2008.gif 257kb 5 times
Negative consequences of world crisis
1. Crisis of liquidity in the world markets will lead to to an aggravation of problems of liquidity in Ukraine. Credits become more expensive, and also a problem in bank sector.
2 Deficiency of liquidity will lead to to reduction of crediting of the Ukrainian companies abroad,cash inflow of the foreign capital to economy of Ukraine will be reduced, because of it was slowed down rates of growth of internal investments into a fixed capital, the consumer demand will decrease, rates of growth of incomes of the population will decrease.
3. Growth of the world prices for the foodstuffs and internal tariffs of natural monopolies, and also increase of salaries to workers of budgetary sphere will be created with preconditions for preservation of high rates of inflation.
4. The increase in budgetary financing of social sphere can not block delay of rates of growth of investments and incomes of the basic part of the population.
World financial crisis does not cease, and, by forecasts of many experts, the situation is stabilized not soon. Till now there is a threat of globalization of crisis. However the National bank undertakes all measures to lower influence of crisis on the Ukrainian economy.
Financial system of Ukraine
The most appreciable consequence of world shocks for our financial system - rise in price of resources. Our banks, especially affiliated banks of large world banks, have got used to practically unlimited access to cheap money. Today to it this access have very much limited. And as a result restriction of credits and increase of rates on deposits.
In summary it would be desirable to tell - Ukraine not so stable country to be horrified by world crisis. "When ground under legs constantly shakes, the gale-force wind is perceived as annoying trouble - and no more."
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