Currently, in the mark of the century and the millenium, a radical change is taking place in views on the role of geodynamics factor for evaluation of environmental, social, economic, and insurance risk which arises throughout exploitation of environmentally dangerous objects and objects of special importance. Conducted research provides conclusive evidence that most dangerous for a man and his environment are recent (currently happening) deformation processes developing in fault zones.
As a result of complex generalization of significant amount of data about recent movements of crust, which was received on specially organized geodynamics polygons for different purposes, principally new data about recent geodynamics condition of subsoil was received. Since such polygons were located in seismically active as well as in not seismically active regions and were equipped with identical measuring systems, it proved possible to conduct a consecutive comparison of basic characteristics of deformation processes which were received in such different (from traditional geodynamics point of view) regions.
As a result of the comparative analysis there was discovered a new class of tectonic movements - recent super-intensive deformations (SD) of crust in fault zones. In this case most paradoxical and unexpected result is that the highest intensity of anomalous deformations can be seen in platform fault zones of seismically low regions. Such anomalous deformation processes are highly amplitude (over 50mm per year or about 10-4 - 10-5 per year), happen in short periods of time (from first months to first years), located in space and time (from first hundreds of meters to first kilometers), and have pulsing and/or alternating directivity.
To study the effect of higher deformation activity of non-seismic faults compared to seismically active ones, the results of comparison of seismic and deformation energy characteristics were analyzed (linear power density of implemented potential energy along the strike of regional geodetic section which begins in Copetdag's foothills and ends on the South hillside of Turanskaya platform). It appeared that the further it got from mountains to platform (from seismically active zone to non-seismic zone), the SD intensity rapidly increased, and seismicity fell and fully disappeared in the platform part. Analogous antiphase behavior of deformation and seismic processes can also be seen within a single fault zone. Thus, as a results of the researches conducted in Kamchatka and Kopetdagsky seismically active regions show, in a period of lower seismic activity a rapid gaining of the SD processes in fault zone is established, and contrariwise. Quantitative results show that stored reserve of potential energy is implemented in a fault zone in two forms: seismicity and SD. In this case, a joint irradiation equivalent exists which is general for both forms of implementation. Thus, it can be presumed that existence of more powerful deformation processes in non-seismic faults of platform zones is a result of absence thereat of dissipation seismic factor, which in seismically active faults provides a "flow" of part of joint irradiation equivalent in seismic form, by that decreasing that part of potential energy which is implemented in the SD form. Considering the fact that joint potential energy of the medium under deformation consists of two components - bulk and wave, an anti-phase behavior of deformation (bulk component) and seismic (wave component) processes, as well as presence of joint irradiation equivalent, all become clear.
Analysis of spatio-temporal peculiarities of forming of SD anomalies made plain the presence of wave deformation processes in fault zones. These waves were registered in a form of chain occurrence of SD impulses in abutting faults (from one fault to the other and so on) or in abutting fragments within one and the same fault zone.
Processes studied were of a nature of a "relay-race transfer" of anomalous activity from one activated object to the other. Eventually, SD processes agitation wave spreads through the field, while fault zones being the elements which are agitated. Speed of transfer of deformation agitation from one fault to the other (inter-fault wave) was from 3 km per year to 30 km per year, while at the migration of the processes within a single fault zone (inter-fault wave) speed changed in diapason of 30-60 km per year. Moreover, such speeds are typical for different regions (Pripyatskaya cavity, Tersko-Caspian bend, Predkopetdagsky bend, etc.).
The received empirical generalizations show that the origin of SD anomalies must be the processes occurring inside these fault zones themselves. Such statement appears to be fair because currently well-known models of abyssal geodynamics cannot explain a monitored spatio-temporal spectrum of recent movements of crust and especially appearance of SD anomalies in platform fault zones.
In this respect, author has proposed a new mechanism of derivation of anomalous deformations in fault zones. Within the limits of this mechanism formation of SD processes is not directly called by time code of a regional (external with respect to volume environment controlled by observing system) stress field, but is conditioned by changes in parameters (hardness modules, friction factor, etc.) of originally loaded environment within fault zones themselves. Arising thereat, SD anomalies are considered as parametrical, because according to theory of mechanical oscillation, overbalance by any system from equilibrium condition (system overbalance) can be reached by two ways: either by an outside collision force or as a result of change of inside parameters of the system itself. Generally, physical nature of occurrence of parametric deformations is seen as follows. Geological environment is in external and internal (endogenous and exogenous), quasi-static (global and regional stress fields) and dynamic (water heights, rippling of Earth orbit, processes of preparation of earthquakes, seismic waves, technogenic processes, etc.) loads. Moreover, dynamically active and chemically aggressive fluid system is constantly presented and redistributed in fault zones, especially in sedimentary reservoirs. Interaction and cooperative influence of all these factors are actualized in first place by improved concentration of environment defects, i. e., in fault zones with not stable mechanical characteristics, by short-term fluctuations of rigidity characteristics of formations in local volumes, which leads to occurrence of SD processes.
Conducted researches show that SD anomalies arise, as a rule, under influence of minor impacts. So, for example, agitation of SD processes by atmospheric condensation was elicited, creation of deformations a the level of 10-5 fault zone, which are conditioned by preparation of an earthquake which occurred 100km from the vantage-ground, initiation of anomalous deformations of low seismicity, etc. Thus, discovered SD processes in fault zones represent new class of tectonic movements - recent parametrically induced movements of crust in fault zones.
Developed concepts of the mechanism of generation of SD processes allowed to formulate quantitative model of formation of local deformations of anomalies in fault zones. It represents semi-infinite solid which has impurity (inhomogenity) with mechanical characteristics other then host medium, the edges of which have preset constant voltages. In this case, during changes in time of mechanical characteristics inside impurity (parametric induction by small exposure) and existence of intensive constant voltages at the edges, takes place the formation of locally deflected mode of body area in the neighborhood of given inhomogenity (model analogue of fault zone).
Created within the limits of given approach analytical and directional numerical models, connecting SD characteristics, monitored on crust, with parameters of the origins in depth, allowed to evaluate allocation of anomalous voltages and deformations throughout depth and to determine the location of the origins of anomalies (areas of exceeded fissuring) inside fault zones. On the basis of developed technology for solving inverse problems of recent faults geodynamics, depth diapasons, sizes, form, and degree of softering of areas of formation of SD anomalies were determined. Current analysis of these results with geodynamic and geological and geophysics situation of regions under examination showed that the origins of SD processes occur in depth diapason from first tens of meters to first kilometers, have (in cross section) form of long (0.05?0.5 km), vertically oriented rectangles, timed to zones of bedding of fluid saturated, fissuring limestone. It appeared that to form anomalous deformations of crust at the level 10-4?10-5 it is necessary to have relative elasticity change of solid block in diapason 1?3 up to 10?30 percent, with given at the edge volumes 10 MPa to 100 MPa.
On the basis of concepts of parametrical induction of SD processes, it was possible to prove autowave nature of spatio-temporal migration of SD anomalies in fault zones. It appeared that the monitored speed diapasons and character of the transfer of deformation activity must be described by nonlinear diffusion equation of crust displacement, analogues to Kolmogorov-Piskunov-Petrovsky equation.
The discovered SD processes in fault zones, development of methods of complex interpretation of observations and diagnosis of recent deflected mode of fault zones allowed to successfully state and solve a number of important practical problems, the most important of which are:
1) quantitative model of processes for earthquakes' preparation for conditions of young sediment basins was developed and necessity to conduct the recording of "self" dynamics of faults at evaluation of the size of the areas of formation of deformation prognostics was made plain. Effect of parametrical amplifying of deformation prognostics in fault zones (parametrical prognostics of earthquakes) was discovered and differential method for geodesic monitoring in fault zones of seismically active regions was proposed. Empiric materials were received and model was defined, demonstrating the dominating role of recent geodynamics of faults to anomalous behavior of Caspian sea level;
2) stable interaction between variations in oil well debits and SD processes was elicited. It was showed that SD anomalies can lead to change in debits at percent 10-30 level. It was shown on example of a number of deposits that space contemporaneity of emergency situations at wells and pipeline systems to fault zones finds its natural explanation within the concepts of existence of SD processes in such zones. A method for SD-dangerous zoning and eliciting of critical depth diapasons within the limits of which snapping and curving of wells of various technological purposes, was developed;
3) a method for SD risk evaluation of highly important and environmentally harmful objects (nuclear power plants and hydrocarbon deposits) was developed, which is based on the author's definition of risk, i. e., risk is a mathematical expectation of damages. Taking as example anomalous deformation of the Moscow Underground tunnels, necessity for the obligatory recording of SD risk in megalopolises and generally through construction of civil engineering and industrial objects was shown;
4) discovered existence of SD processes in platform fault zones reverses the concept of environmental risk level because precisely platform regions represent predominant environment. In this case, new class of environmental risk appears - ecological and geodynamics risk in two forms: direct (toxic fluids emission from activated faults) and indirect (SD influence on accident rate of objects which are environmentally dangerous for man and his environment). Essentiality of recording of ecological and geodynamics risk for solving such global environmental problem as greenhouse effect was motivated. The results presented demonstrate that recent geodynamics of faults and especially their most extreme exhibition in the SD processes form, must become an object of intent consideration in all spheres of human activity. Recording of SD factor should be conducted in normative acts issued by state agencies, regulating safe exploitation of most important and environmentally dangerous objects (nuclear power plants, waterpower plants, main oil and gas pipelines, large hydrocarbon deposits and their infrastructure, places of nuclear and toxic waste disposal, etc.). To improve social protection of population from SD danger, preparation of new approaches and norms for SD risk insurance is required. All that definitely must be reflected in amendments and additions to applicable law in part related to SD-danger recording.
The aforesaid states the requirement for conducting thorough diagnostics of the level and scale of SD and danger of SD risk. Also, the following must be considered. Constant technogenic loading of subsoil together with active natural processes creates geoenvironments in fault zone areas of constitutive fluctuation of natural deformation regime. It is well known that concepts of the nature of cause-effect relations change in principle in fluctuation systems. If in fluctuation systems the measures of cause and effect are always of the same order, then small reasons lead to quite big consequences in fluctuation and constitutive nonlinear systems. In these systems, fluctuation itself must be treated as cause of events. In such situation it is essential to conduct very thoughtful system of diagnostics of crust fields with fluctuation deformation characteristics (SD zoning). For that purpose follow-up realization of three interconnected procedures must be conducted:
1) detailed and measurement-assured monitoring of SD processes;
2) complex several-variant interpretation of results of the monitoring and selection of different scenarios of possible negative contour (evaluation of SD danger);
3) determination of the level of SD risk, forecasting environmental, social and economic consequences, and formulating strategies for preventive arrangements.
In author's opinion, it is precisely today, at turn of centuries and milleniums, when feeling entrenches that whole life on Earth is organic, local changes in one place can create danger to the remaining parts of world, and that we are responsible for life order on our planet. Now it becomes possible to understand not only with common sense, but with heart as well, the distance, frightening at beginning, where natural science and technology are calling us. The Little Prince, who is concerned about our planet, speaks precisely about this, exclaiming: "Really one can see with his heart, the most important things are invisible!"
In that case, only a harmonized coexistence of Nature and Man is possible. Only that is how author sees the main strategy of rational nature management.