Economic safety of any state is based on the maximum antonomy of its activities to ensure the stable functioning of the national economy. The main condition of this becomes providing the economics with various types of resources in sufficient volume. One of the most important and necessary components for the reliable operation of the enterprises are power resources . All indices, connected with their use , to any extent have an influence on cost price of production , profitableness of manufacture and completely depend on the condition of power complex . Thus , fuel and power complex (FPC) - is a basic sector of economics , where an important resource is worked out , which provides the inclusion of all other resources of the state into the process of production , such as production staff , raw materials , experienced potential high technologies and so on.

One of the important components of the fuel and power complex of Ukraine is a coal industry. Not a branch of this complex has such potentialities like this Prospected own reserves of oil and gas are limited . This topic is a problem of today, because the future status of Ukraine's coal industry is based on the idea of maximum possible satisfaction of demands of the state in fuel and power resources and metallurgical raw materials by means of economically grounded raising of own output. The transition from accounting mined coal in tons to its accounting in power units is planned.

The aim of this work is an investigation of possibility of use of B-distribution when predicting the specific technical and economic parameters with the substantiation of the algorithm of determination of guantitative values of its statistical characteristics . Hence , the following tasks were raised before me : the role of coal industry in fuel and power complex , planning and consideration of the mechanism of production planning in the conditions of uncertainty of iformation.

The subject of the research is optimization of the volume of production and the object is a coal mining enterprise " The mine by Stakhanov" SE (State Enterprize)" Krasnoarmeiskugol".

Energetics is an extremely important basic branch of economics . In Ukraine as in other developed countries nearly a third part of IGP of the country is connected with energetics . Fuel and Power Complex of Urkaine is oriented on coal , oil , gas and nuclear fuel. Own fuel and power resources of Ukraine are represented mainly with coal and brown coal of Donetsk, Lvov-Volyn and Pridneprovskiy basins. The general power problem of national level is to raise the efficiency of use of power resources and volumes of power economy. Nowadays in Ukraine this problem turned into a political problem of great importance , because the situation with power economy makes talk already about the national disaster and the threat to national security of out state . We are provided with coal in 90% , oil - in 24% , gas - in 26%. Only the production of electricity tops our needs by 6%.

The results of the analysy's of the development of the world energetics show that in the structure of the world reserwes of organic fuel coal forms 67%, oil - 18%, natural gas - 15%. In Ukraine these indices are accordingly 95,4%, 2% and 2,6%. The general volume of reserwes of our home coal is about 117,5 milliard tons among which industrial tons at functioning mines are 6,5 milliard and nearly 3,5 milliard tons of them are power coal. Ukraine's coal output is on the top of ten leading countries, but considerably yields to majority of them in economic indices of coal mining. Coal industry is a basic branch of the economy which carries out prospect and output of coal and brown coal. The main coal basin is Donetsk. 92% of all coal reserwes, 44% of them is coking coal and 56% of power coal are concentrated in Donetsk coal basin. The output of coal is carried out by underground (mining) method at about 160 mines. The strategic aim of the development of coal industry is in the stabilization of the situation and in subsequent development of the branch for satisfaction of the economic needs and needs of the population in their own output. To achieve the strategic aim long - term policy of the development of the coal industry has three stages which are divided into near (2006-2010), average term (2011-2015) and distant prospects (2016-2030's),(shown in picture 1.)

Picture 1. Coal Output, Imports and Exports

There are several types of market : monopoly pure competition , oligopoly , monopolistic competition . Consequently , the enterprise , which belongs to the coal industry , is the only producer of this product -coal , which has no close substitutes. From afore said we can see that analysing enterprise belongs to the market of pure monopoly. No close substitutes. It follows from the first sign that the product of monopoly is unique because there are no good and close substitutes . From the poin of view of buyer it means that it has no acceptable alternatives. Buyer must buy the monopolist's product or do without it.

Drop in production, low coefficient of subscription for dispatched production , hyperinflation , insufficient financing of the state - all these have led to general deterioration of the situation at the mines . Nowadays to produce the production without economic ground is not profitable. On condition that our government can not subsidize industry , we should find new ways of resolving of these problems . The process of planning at the mines , which could substantiate the best variant of production and the realization of the production , is one of the directions of resolving of the existed problems. For coal mines the main reasons of possible cutting of output and increase of cost price are organization management , natural , financial and political risks and factors that stipulate them.

The probability of predicting of volume of selling at the power market , whith is carried out on the basis of the empirical datas , is examined in this work. While studying the distribution of technical and economic parameters of the industrial enterprises we can investigate B-distribution with density of probability at the same time estimates should be stable to small devitations from assumptions . Only in this case created probability model will be effective in its practical application.

One of the main aims of the economic policy of the state is ensuring of stable rates of economic development . Economic development means an augmentation of potential and real gross national output , strengthening of the economic power of the state and individual enterprises. The main task of the subjects of management is production and economic activity , aimed at obtaining profits for satisfaction of social and economic interests of owners' property. That's why the importance of determination optimum volume of production for enterprises is explained by that fact that this volume is to maximize profit or minimize damage, that is the main aim of its activities (12,43)

1. So, the main aims of the state government witch respect to fuel and power complex are raising the role of coal industry in ensuring of power security of the state and the assistance to the development of home metallurgical complex ;reforming relations of property and perfection of the branch management ; improving the market of coal production ; financual recovery of the coal industry ; raising the level of safety and labour protection of miners.(10,p7) 2. To achiwe power independence we can suggest the following three main directions of the development of our Ukrainian energetics: - the transition of heat energetics to Ukrainian coal that will be able to afford to reduce the cost price of produced electricity; - the development of alternative energetics ecologically cleaner and considerably cheaper; - further development of nuclear energetics with the inereasing of security of nuclear reactors that can produce at least half of the country's required electricity. With the development of these three directions Ukraine can provide with electricity not only inself but it can also become an exporter. Shall we preserve our fuel and power complex or permit it to continue to degrade? It will depend on successful realization of raised aims.

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