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Alla Khalaimova
Faculty: Economy
Department of Economy of the enterprise
Speciality "Enterprise Economy"
Theme of master's work:
Innovative Risk Management
Scientific adviser: Fishenko Oksana
About author
Innovative Risk Management
Contents
- Introduction
- A review of research on the topic in DonNTU
- A review of research on the topic in Ukraine
- A review of research on the topic in the world
- Main results
- Conclusions and future research
- References
Introduction
Relevance of the topic
To bridge the gap with advanced economies and ensure the economic independence of the Ukrainian economy should focus on the innovation of development. For industry, the leading industry of Ukraine, the transition to innovation is particularly relevant. But as the domestic practice, innovation involved a small number of industrial enterprises, most of which deals only with the development and introduction of new or improved products, because of its traditional forms are largely uncompetitive, both foreign and domestic markets.
One of the major constraints to the innovative activity of enterprises, together with the lack of financial resources, weak and poor productivity of the mechanisms of state support, the imperfection of legislative base and the rest, is a high risk. The company may refuse to risky choices, moving slowly and cautiously, focusing only on a temporary upgrade. This way is more quiet, but absolutely hopeless in terms of NTP, in fact, he drives the economy in the
The purpose of the research work:
Theoretical basis and practical development of the recommendation of measures for the management, reduction, avoidance of innovation risk, a study of existing mathematical models and introducing new formulas for calculating the risks of innovation, as well as collecting and analyzing information about the risks of innovation, their characteristics and management of the innovation process.
Objectives of research work:
Analysis of the essence of innovative enterprise risk
The study of publications on the topic of management of innovation risk
Development of an improved model for calculating the risk of innovation
Assessing the impact of innovation risk
Look at various techniques and methods of analysis of innovation risks
Substantiation of complex measures on management of innovation risk in the enterprise
Objects of study are innovative processus.
The subject of the study are the methods of innovative enterprise risk.
Research methods.
Of methodological basis of research works have become national and foreign scientists and economists, the laws of Ukraine. The study applied the methods of qualitative and quantitative assessment of the risks of innovation, namely: a statistical method, the feasibility study cost, the discount rate adjustment method, the method of coefficient of reliability, sensitivity analysis, performance criteria, the method of scenario analysis of the likely distribution of payment flows, the method of decision tree peer review, a method of using analog, Monte Carlo, etc.
The scientific significance of the work
In this paper we consider new approaches to the calculation of the innovation risk, which is a very important aspect of the success of the enterprise, have chosen the application of innovation to improve competitiveness, improving investment attractiveness, gaining monopoly status in a particular market segment. But the innovative activity overlaps with the concept of "innovative risk" that could become a serious threat to the further successful development and stability of the enterprise.
The practical value of the results.
We developed and offered new and improved mathematical model for measuring risk and inform decisions on implementation of innovative projects.
A review of research on the topic in DonNTU
Problem of innovation risk and innovation and investment processes involved Khobta VM, Fishenko O. Kravchenko, S., Shilov O., Bondarev I., Shilov, LI, Popov AY Meshkov, AV, Tishchenko AA. Among the graduates, who has studied innovation risks can be identified: Belovolova AN Rudokvas AN Dolzhenkova VM, Galuska EV Semibolotny AA, Zaitsev, DA and others.
A review of research on the topic in Ukraine
Innovative garments studied R. Bazel, I. Balabanov, T. Bachkai,
A review of research on the topic in the world
Analysis of current economic literature gives reason to conclude that at present domestic and foreign theory and practice, no single approach to managing innovation risk. A significant part of scientific papers contain theoretical studies and methods for measuring the level of risk in finance, investment and other areas. However, there is clear lack of studies devoted to the management of innovation risk. [10]
Main planned results
The problem of risk is very relevant especially in the era of advanced technologies, the rapid spread of which the world accelerates technological progress. So now, many enterprises engaged in innovation activities that their equipment and products manufactured on this equipment, comply with the requirements of consumers. But the innovative activity as no other the most risky, because the company has to make important decisions in an uncertain time, uncertainty, costs, uncertainty of outcome.
In other industries might at least roughly predict the volume of production and sales, the cost of its production, profits, relying on the market environment. And innovation is very difficult to predict even the short term, as in this case is very important time. On the speed and accuracy of decision making with respect to innovation depends on continued success of innovation. At every step of the uncertainty, there are many risks, so the company must carefully and thoroughly carry out the control, to have a flexible management system and in the event of an emergency quickly reorient itself to prevent the occurrence of risk situations. But avoiding risk impossible. Each man faced with the problem of electing a true solution of the many risks. Therefore, the company must minimize the impact of risks on innovation.We give a proper definition of risk in innovation. Innovative risk is the likelihood of an unfavorable situation or reject the actual result of the planned during the implementation of innovative activity (at each stage in the development, implementation and use of innovations), which can lead to unplanned losses on venture funds investing in the production of new goods or services, the development of new technology, and investing in the development of managerial innovations that will not bring the desired effect, with more stages of development (or purchase), the introduction and use of new equipment or to promote a new product the company has carried out the more it costs, which in If the failure is impossible to compensate.Risk management is the process of studying the parameters of object and subject of risk, internal and external factors affecting the behavior of the object and the subject of risk, its optimization, planning, accounting and control, motivation and management of works on risk management. [26, p.230]
Risk management can be reduced to five functions in Fig. 1.1:
Fig.1.1 — Risk management function
Figure 1.2 represents the system of governance principles
Fig. 1.2 — System of risk management [5; p. 289]
Innovative risk management process encompasses the steps shown in Figure 1.3.
Figure 1.3 — Scheme of risk management
One of the major components of the Risk Sciences is a system of indicators to measure the degree of risk. Quantitative value of risk is defined as a relationship, and in absolute terms, expressing the degree of uncertainty (probability) of implementing the decision. In absolute terms, risk can be estimated magnitude of projected losses, and a relative — as the magnitude of losses relative to some «base». «Base» can be chosen directly by the company depending on its specificity and type of assessed risk. It may be the production costs, the cost of fixed assets, the assets of the enterprise, profit, cost of individual resources, etc. [15, s.414 — 415]
The calculation of the absolute value of risk (absolute level of losses) can be performed as follows:
Wi = Pi * βi
where Wi — absolute value of the risk of the
Pi — regular value of the
βi — the calculated risk measures (coefficient of variation)
The calculation of risk in relative terms:
Ri = Li / Pi
where Ri — relative risk value for the i parameter
Quantitative risk value can be determined and the difference between the expected effect of implementing the decision, elected in a given uncertain situation, and the effect of which would be obtained if the decision was taken under certainty. In the calculations used by expert estimates, are involved in research and design organizations.
Risk ratio is defined as follows:
Kp = Y / C
where Y — the maximum possible amount of loss, UAH.
C — amount of own financial resources, taking into account exactly known means of income, USD.
To determine the quantitative values of risk using the value of the expected loss, multiplied by the probability that these losses occur, the optimal solution with respect to that risk or not, will be the minimum value of possible losses, which is calculated thus [12, p. 300]:
V = V1 * I1 + (V1 + V2) * I2
where V — real
As with every stage of the promotion of innovation project, our losses are also growing and no one can recover, in case of failure at the next stage of development of an innovative project the size of the cost will be significantly greater than in previous phases, because it covers the sum of all losses in the previous stages. Since the review of the formula does not take into account the time factor and the continuous growth of inflation in the current conditions of the unstable state of the Ukrainian currency, then offer it to improve:
Kp = Y / C * i
V = V1 * I1 * i1 + (V1 + V2) * I2 * i2
where i1, i2 — inflation rate
You can also distribute the total risk on innovative ingredients that will describe some of its characteristics, for example, each stage of the life cycle of an innovative project that will consist of the risks involved in certain stages of development of innovation. Or for technical, environmental, economic and other characteristics, show some of the success of innovation:
P = P1 + P2 + …+ Pn
where Pi — i kind of risk for selected characteristics (ecological, technological, social, economic and other parameters), or the risk at this stage of the innovation process
We derive a new formula to estimate the level of risk. The proposed value will characterize the ratio of favorable to unfavorable conditions. What is more, the more confidence we can assert that the project is implemented is not recommended. However, to achieve a leading position in the market, enterprises can go to a certain level of risk, taking on higher costs in case of failure to bring an innovative project. Venture capital unit can take a very high level of uncertainty and suffer huge losses.
Therefore propose the following formula to identify the company within the acceptable risk for it, determine the appropriate level of damages for the detection of getting the company in a particular zone of risk. Consequently, the odds ratio of adverse situations (K), characterizing the ratio of a threatening situation before the onset of the favorable situation:
K = β1 / β2
where β1 — the likelihood of an unfavorable situation, % (β1 → min)
β2 — the likelihood of a favorable situation, % (β2 → max)
If К > 1, project is characterized by a high degree of riskiness of adverse events.
If К = 1, recommended a more detailed analysis.
If К < 1, advantageous to implement the project, because the risk of a threat to low.
We derive a new formula that will determine the security zone on the risk situation in the enterprise, introducing innovative project:
S = (n1 — n2) / n1
where n1 — critical value at which the level of losses from the failure to bring an innovative project reaches the boundary of the possible upcoming losses, and threaten to increase the size of expenditures over the established standards.
In this research work were the features of management of innovation risk.
The first section of the work was performed research publications, authors and economists about the nature of innovation risk, its characteristics, the factors affecting it are considered the classification of the various scientists who help identify the type of innovative risk for further analysis and correct method of management.
The second section of the research work were considered mathematical models assessing the level of innovation risk. It was determined that it is important to identify the degree of risk, and you should first assess the likelihood that a particular event actually happens, and only then how will it affect the situation.
In the third section of the paper are recommendations for proper selection of methods for quantifying the risks of innovation, and proposes new mathematical models that will identify in more detail the influence of innovation risk in the enterprise activity and identify the danger zone and risk tolerance. But we should remember that the use of any formulas to determine the risk is not possible without determining the specifics of the company, development stage of the business and the development of risk situation, financial sustainability, particularly the market segment in which the enterprise operates and other factors. Вергал К.Ю. Інноваційний розвиток підприємства через інтеграцію стратегічного та інноваційного менеджменту. Економічний вісник Донбасу. Науковий журнал, № 1 (15), 2009 р. Глущенко В.В., Глущенко Грачева, Марина Владимировна. Управление рисками в инновационной деятельности: Учебное пособие для студентов вузов, обучающихся по экономическим спеціальностям / Донцова Івченко І.Ю. Економічні ризики: Навчальний посібник. — Київ.: «Центр навчальної літератури», 2004. — 304 с. Ілляшенко Інноваційний розвиток промисловості України / О.І. Волков, Ісаєва Фатхутдинов
n2 — the actual value of the result from the introduction of an innovative projectConclusions and future research
References
Summary [Еlectronic resource] — Access mode
http://www.masters.donntu.ru/
2009/fem/belovolova/diss/index.htm
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