DonNTU   Masters' portal

Matros Tatiana

Faculty of Management

Department of Economic Cybernetics (EC)

Speciality Economic Cybernetics

Simulation of economic security in unsteady conditions of enterprises

Scientific adviser: Ph. D., Assoc. Kasyanova Natalia Vytalevna

Resume Abstract

Abstract

Content

• Introduction
• 1. Theme urgency
• 2. Goal and tasks of the research
• 3. Use the system-dynamic approach to estimate the economic security of the enterprise
• Conclusion
• References

Introduction

The protection of economic interests of an enterprise so far received little attention, although this problem is very urgent. In conditions of development of market mechanisms in the economy, the growth of private enterprise is a very important task of economic science and practice economic activities of enterprises becomes economic security.

A security feature in tourism is in great depth of its penetration into the complexity of the links between its elements. Since most of the tourist enterprises is small, the risks typical for the tourism industry and should fit into a single regional system of governance, where the objective is to ensure long term sustainability, enhancing the security and competitiveness of tourist organizations in the market.

1. Theme urgency

Acute problems for the functioning of enterprises have become the criminalization of society, covers most of the little effectively working enterprises in many sectors of the economy; the corruption of public officials and law enforcement bodies who do not wish to fight organized crime. And if we add another and lack of illumination of problems of economic safety of the enterprises in the normative-legislative acts, we can conclude that, today, the majority of enterprises faces an acute problem of creation and application of assessment and ensuring its economic security.

A confirmation of the great relevance of the problem of ensuring economic security of enterprises is the fact that many large enterprises no effectively functioning scientific assessment of economic security, theoretical bases, that essentially reduces the effectiveness of their operation and determines the current high demand for research and development in the field of the problems of economic security.

Thus, we can conclude that this subject is of great relevance not only for the economic science in the conditions of weak elaboration and study of the issues of economic safety of the enterprises, but also for the practice of work of the enterprises.

2. Goal and tasks of the research

The purpose of work is development of system dynamic model of estimation of economic safety of the enterprise.

The main research tasks:

1. To learn how to use the system-dynamic approach to estimate the economic security of the enterprise.
2. To justify the system-dynamic modeling and its role in modern analytical research.
3. To analyze the concept of economic security and risks of the enterprise.
4. To develop a conceptual model of an estimation of economic security in the logical formal description based on the analysis of cause-effect relationships.
5. To describe the system-dynamic model of the assessment of the level of economic security of enterprises using mathematical equations.
6. To create the system of decision on determination of the level of economic security on the results of experimental modelling.

Research object: economic safety of the enterprises of tourist business.

The study: development of system dynamic model of estimation of economic safety of the enterprise.

In the framework of master's work it is planned to receive topical scientific results in the following areas:

1. Development of a conceptual model of an estimation of economic security in the logical-formal description based on the analysis of cause-effect relationships.
2. Development of system dynamic model of estimation of level of economic safety of the enterprise with the help of mathematical equations.
3. The formation of the system of decision making to determine the level of economic security on the results of experimental modelling.

3. Use the system-dynamic approach to estimate the economic security of the enterprise

Let's start with the theory of economic security. For any theory of the issue of definitions and terminology is very important. Definition of terms laid in the basis of all reasoning, logic, affect the final outcome. In the basis of the definitions is always one or another approach, the author's attitude to the problem, his philosophy, way of thinking, the way of action.

In the literature, the research on the topic of security is given a sufficient number of definitions, both safety and economic security of enterprises. Each of these definitions, certainly, has a right to exist and is, in fact, the most concentrated expression of the views of each participant on the very notion of security, as well as on the activities of security [2].

The concept of security of the company expresses the Outlook on the problem of security of the enterprise at different stages and levels of industrial activity, and also the main principles, directions and stages of implementation of security measures. Foreign and domestic experience shows that to fight the whole of the criminal and illegal actions necessary harmonious and purposeful organization of the process of counteraction. And in the organization of this process should involve professional experts, the company's management, employees and users, and defines the high importance of organizational side of the issue.

The main goal of economic security of the enterprise is provision of its sustainable and efficient functioning at the present time and ensuring a high potential for development and growth of the enterprise in the future. In General, the form of the goals and tasks of economic security can be represented in a diagram (fig. 1) [4].

Each of these goals, the economic security of the enterprise is the basis for the normal functioning. Detailed elaboration and control over the execution of the target structure of the economic security of the enterprise is a very important part of the process of ensuring economic security.

The need to constantly maintain economic security, due to objective for each enterprise of tasks to ensure the stable functioning and achieving the main goals of its activity. The level of economic security depends on how effectively the company's management to avoid possible Garros and eliminate negative consequences of individual negative elements of external and internal environment.

The sources of negative impact on the economic security of the enterprise can be consciously or unconsciously actions of separate business entities (public authorities, competitors); the combination of objective circumstances (state financial conditions, scientific discoveries) [2].

The basic and functional objectives contribute to the formation of the necessary structural elements and General scheme of the organization of economic security (fig. 2).

According to the common methodology is proposed to assess the economic security on the basis of the cumulative criteria through weighting and summing the individual functional criteria, calculated by comparing the possible range of damage to the company and the effectiveness of measures to prevent it [1].

The aggregate measure of economic security of the enterprise can be calculated by the formula:

where

ki – value of an individual criterion i-functional component;

di – share of the importance of i-functional component

The evaluation of the level of economic safety of the enterprise is performed by comparison of calculated values with the actual values of this indicator for the analyzed company, or similar entities [7].

After the calculation of the effect of the functional components is functional analysis of the activities for organizing the necessary level of economic security in accordance with the relevant algorithm (fig. 3).

A special importance in the system of elements of economic security provided two factors – the definition of optimum volume of production and analysis of financial stability and solvency of the enterprise. However, effective control over the data variables can be successfully realized only under condition of conformity of parameters estimation of economic safety of the enterprise task of anti-crisis regulation [4].

Crisis management is a function of crisis management, provides an equilibrium state of the economic system [5].

The main factors that determine the level of business risk is external factors and internal factors [9].

The specifics of its business risks in the field of tourist services and determines its impact on the management tourism organization. According to her, should assess how far and in what direction should develop a managerial tool to correctly solve specific problems that are inherent only the entrepreneurial risk in the tourism industry [8].

According to the set goal, it becomes necessary to determine the parameters of economic security with the use of simulation tools for LLC Aquareli when it will become possible to calculate the adequate development scenarios of the situation, which will allow to avoid occurrence of tourist firms in the zone of critical risk by preventing or eliminating consequences of internal and external threats to the stability of the enterprise.

But before we proceed to the stage of development of mathematical version of the proposed model, you must perform several tasks:

1. Define a list of the most important external and internal threats to economic stability travel company.
2. To determine the likelihood of threats made the list.
3. To determine the size of economic damage stability of a travel company, caused by external and internal threats.
4. Identify necessary expenses for prevention of external and internal threats or liquidation of their consequences.
5. Identify necessary expenses for prevention of external and internal threats or liquidation of their consequences.

Table 1 provides information on what types of resources tourist firm is influenced by external and internal threats.

Table 1 – The influence of external and internal threats to resources of tourist enterprise

№	The threat of external and internal environment	Resources tourist company
		Financial	Material	Information	Personnel
1	Reduction of demand for tourist services	х	х
2	The reduction of the level and quality of life of the population	х	х
3	High competition	х
4	Disclosure of confidential information			х
5	Reduction of the level of qualification of personnel				х
6	Damage to the security of clients using tourist service	х

The above mentioned we can make a hypothesis about the interaction of factors (fig. 4).

Based On the chart feedback, you can build a computer simulation model (computer simulation) processes occurring in the system.

Thus, on the basis of the above factors was built chart causal chain management of economic security of the enterprise (fig. 5).

Outlines in landmark digraph correspond feedback, and contours, reinforcing deviation – the contours positive feedback, and the contours of non-deviation – the contours negative feedback. The path deviation increases if and only if it contains an even number of arcs or negative, they are all positive. Otherwise, this circuit prevents deviation [6].

The effectiveness of a security system be evaluated using the indicator of economic stability of the enterprise (fig. 6) [1].

As you can see from figure 9 economic stability of the enterprise is determined on the basis of data on the positive or negative growth in average daily profit of the enterprise.

If the increase in profit is positive, then the indicator is moving towards economic stability.

If the increase in profit is negative, then the indicator is moving towards the zone of critical risk.

A conceptual model of an estimation of economic safety of the enterprise was mathematically formalized in the environment Powersim (fig. 7) [6].

Imagine the action of the security system using the valuation model of economic safety of the enterprise in Powersim (fig. 8) [3].

As you can see from figure 8, the company's profit taking into account expenses on economic security is obtained less than the maximum profit, which is achieved in the absence of external and internal threats. However, the cost for the system of economic security are fully recovered, when compared profit taking into account expenses on economic security and profit taking account of the damage caused to the tourist firm threats of external and internal environment.

Conclusion

The problem of ensuring economic security of enterprises requires a solution that applies to all enterprises and organizations that operate in market conditions. To ensure the economic security required from external and internal influences, disrupt the normal functioning of economic activity.

The concept of security of the company expresses the Outlook on the problem of security of the enterprise at different stages and levels of industrial activity, and also the main principles, directions and stages of implementation of security measures.

The main goal of economic security of the enterprise is provision of its sustainable and efficient functioning at the present time and ensuring a high potential for development and growth of the enterprise in the future [2].

In the framework of the conducted research made:

1. Studied using the system – dynamic approach to estimate the economic security of the enterprise, to justify the system – dynamic modeling and its role in modern analytical research.
2. Analyzed the concept of economic security and risks of the enterprise.
3. Identify the most important external and internal threats to economic stability travel company.
4. Has developed a conceptual model of an estimation of economic security in the logical formal description based on the analysis of cause – effect relationships and implemented in a software environment Powersim.

Further research is focused on the following aspects:

1. Improve the mathematical apparatus is developed conceptual models of the estimation of economic security of the enterprise.
2. Development of the system of economic security for a tourist firm.

When writing this abstract master's work is not done. Final completion: December 2014. The full text of work and materials on the topic can be obtained from the author or his head after the specified date.

References

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