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Abstract

Содержание

Introduction

A variety and complication of tasks of forming of market of new foods and creation of IE of these foods require reasonable combination of the mathematical methods sent to complex optimization of decisions, with more simple methods and mathematical receptions, providing the decision of problem but to parts with subsequent establishment of logical connections between parts and quantitative estimation of connections by means of expert methods.

The decision condition of development of industrial production is more effective use of achievements of NP, newest capital and perfect technological processes goods that the taken determine a technological innovation as basis of development of IE together. In researches of TI as an object of economic analysis and management аавится task of estimation of his economic efficiency, the decision of that for every concrete case requires development of economic indicators reflecting economic result of functioning of the technological system, setting dependence between a cost, unit cost, capital investments and productive expenses on producing of this products.

1. Theme urgency

Presently in an economy an industrial production left off to be priority and management object on a macrolevel, that fraught by extremely negative consequences. In recent year his slump proceeds especially in the industries, related to development, introduction, mastering and sale of the new products created on the basis of technological innovations (TI)[1]

In a strategic aspect alteration of structure of economy can not be unconnected with the modern stage of scientific and technical revolution, meaning passing to the new technological mode. It requires large investments for development, introduction and mastering of the newest technologies and projects at the level of world standards, use of front-rank methods of organization and management by industrial enterprises (IE), introduction of modern equipment within the framework of new projects (NP).[2]

To principal reasons, retentive activity of IE it is necessary to take: inflation, shortage of financial difficulties with raw material and materials, enhanceable risk and other In these terms the problem of all-round examination and economic evaluation of NP is especially actual on the initial stage of their ground, allowing substantially to bring down during their realization.

It is known that basic scientific directions of analysis and estimation of NP in industry are related to next теоретико-методологическими positions[3].

Firstly, this application of expert methods for a ground and acceptance of technological decisions of choice of NP of Paragraphs. Secondly, are models and methods of the network planning, allowing to define a rational or optimal sequence implementations of works at set technological, budgetary and other limitations. Thirdly, it a theory and practice of management are the systematized set of positions about most effective management by projects (carrying summarizing, empiric and intuitional character)[30].

2. Goal and tasks of the research

Actuality of the problem related to development and introduction in practice of such methods defined aims and tasks that is investigated in master's degree work. The aim of master's degree research is development of methods and facilities of expert estimation for the ground of projects of development on the base of ТН providing the decline of risk at making decision on realization. For the achievement of this aim in master's degree work it is necessary to decide next tasks:

  1. Realization of analysis of the state of theoretical and methodical bases of examination and economic evaluation of NP;
    2. IE for the economic ground of choice of variant of strategy of development on the basis of T;
  2. Development of the generalized structural model of complex of associate tasks of economic evaluation of NP IE;
  3. Development of model of НNP for research of his cost in the conditions of temporal vagueness of completion of works;
    4. IE.

Research object: new project on industrial enterprises on the stage of his expert estimation and economic ground. .

Article of research: methods of analysis, expert and economic estimation of NP IE for a decision-making on his realization. Research methods. The methodical base of research is made by positions of analysis of the systems, economic analysis on the basis of expert estimations, methods of prognostication, экономико-математические methods and models.

Within the framework of master's degree work the receipt of actual is planned scientific results on next directions:

  1. The conducted analysis of NP must show the necessity of decision of row of problems among that one of dominant positions occupies problem of investing in NP, substantially related to the methods of examination, economic evaluation and on the whole ground of these projects. The considered methods and facilities of examination and economic evaluation of innovations must decide the main problem of economic evaluation on the initial stage, that I will allow to bring down the risk of investments, and will promote interest of investors the same in high-efficiency NP.[21]
  2. In this conTI and especially their complex estimation on the initial stage for making decision on investing in them [32]. The correct use of these methods and facilities created on their basis, providing theoretical and methodological bases of choice of directions of investing in TI, will allow to get the high enough reliable estimation of the expected results of realization of TN taking into account the requirements of international standards allowing to provide a product re-created on their basis output to the markets of other countries.[4]TI, realized in practice and easily adapting oneself to the specific terms of the initial stage of examination of these projects, reducing a vagueness and, as a result, risk at making decision about their realization.[28]

Most present to date research and practice works and recommendations on the economic ground of NP carry either too general or local character and does not result in the complex decision of problem of investing. Not spared, as a rule, due that would allow to provide the reliable enough estimation of the expected results of realization of TI and, as a result, reducing the risk of investing in concrete projects.[5]

3. Structural model of examination and economic evaluation of the new project on industrial enterprise

The next basic principles applied to any types of projects are fixed in basis of estimations of efficiency of NP. regardless of their technical, технологиеских financial, and regional features :

  1. Consideration of проэкта напротяжении of all his life cycle.[10]
  2. Design of money streams. including all related to realization of project money receivabless and charges for calculation period taking into account possibility of ипользования of different currencies.
  3. Principle of positiveness and a maximum of effect
  4. Account of factor of time. At the estimation of efficiency the different aspects of factor of time must be taken into account. including. dynamic quality of parameters of project and his economic surroundings, breaks in time between the production of goods or receipt of resources and their payment, unequivalence of разновременных expenses and results.
  5. Account of only forthcoming expenses and receivabless. [34]At the calculation of indexes of efficiency must related to bringing in of the before created productive funds, атакже. forthcoming losses directly caused by realization of project. [31]Before the resources used in a project are estimated by not expenses on their creation, and by an alternative cost, reflecting the maximal value of the loss of profit, related to their the best possible alternative использовнием.[19]
  6. Comparing "to the project" and "without a project".[6] The estimation of efficiency of NP must be conducted from situations "with a project" and "without a project".
  7. Account of all most substantial consequences of project.

The major index of efficiency of project is the net discounted profit Payments of money stream are usually added up into the certain periods of time, for example, monthly, quaterly, circannual. [13]Then, for a money stream consisting of N of steps, it is possible to write down :CF = CF1 + CF2 +. + CFN, [27].

Thus, a general money stream is equal to the sum of streams on all steps.

The formula of calculation of net discounted profit looks like :

Formula of calculation of net discounted profit

Picture 1 is Formula of calculation of net discounted profit

On the basis of calculation of net discounted profit the calculation of internal norm of profitableness is executed by characterizing a return on investments. The internal norm of profitableness is numeral equal to the rate of discounting at that the net discounted profit becomes equal to the zero.[19]

For признани of productive funds, атакже, forthcoming losses directly caused by realization of проектая project from the point of view of investor it is necessary effective, that net discounted profit of project was positive; at comparison of alternative projects a preference must give oneself up to the project with a large value net discounted profit (at implementation of условяи of his positiveness).[26]

Where D is a rate of discounting, that reflects speed of change of value of moneys in course of time. Every element of CFK/ (1+D) K is DFC on the step of K. Multiplier 1/ (1+D) K used in the formula of calculation of net discounted profit diminishes with the height of K, that reflects reduction of value of moneys in course of time

Conclusion

As a result of undertaken studies of methods and facilities of examination and economic evaluation of NP it is assumed to draw conclusion :

  1. At plenty enough of works the problem of effective economic evaluation of ПР remains unsolved on the initial stage of their analysis;
  2. The necessity of development of methods and facilities of examination and economic evaluation of projects is dictated by the requirements of investors about plenitude of these estimations.
  3. For complete presentation of tasks of examination and economic evaluation of NP IE on the base of methodology of inheritance of structures and assumptions of regression to work out the structural model of complex estimation of projects.
  4. On the basis of network approach to work out the system of models of estimation of cost parameters of realization of NP IE, different that in them the different variants of realization of project are taken into account taking into account complete information or at unclear limits on a temporal interval.
  5. To offer methodology of estimation of efficiency of structure of control system on the basis of research of general influence of indexes of co-operation of elements of this structure.

At writing of this report master's degree work is not yet completed. Final completion: May, 2017. Complete text of work and materials on the topic can be got for an author or his leader after the named date.

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