Васильченко Олена Анатоліївна
UKRAINE IN THE EUROATLANTIC SPACE
To turn into a self-sufficient strong modern nation, Ukraine requires a long transition period. Under the present conditions, it cannot be a period of "internal concentration" - such transformations are impossible under isolation. From the point of view of the needs in strengthening the statehood and improvement of a long-term strategy in Ukraine, acute is the question on the correlation of national and international issues. The problem is accomplished with a historical lag of the internal processes from the present dominating international trends, which have too much european features. It is evident thatthe prospects of national renascence and Ukraine's intensified progress are connected with overcoming of this lag, building up an open soociety and integration into international space.
Besides, the logics of geopolitical transformations determine a high level of the state's dependence upon external factors. As a general, the resultant of these factors is of a positive character, but a favourable interantional situation just gives a chance which one must manage to exploit. Actually, the external impacts are controversial and require essential efforts as for their harmonization, lessening of risks and efective use of international cooperation potential.
Taking into account the Ukrainian cultural and historical, economic and political realities, we speak, first of all, of the european format of both external impacts and external priorities. In the Euro-Atlantic space, foreign-policy problems, basic national interests, actual and potential partners are concentrated. Certainly, the further consolidation of the Euro-Atlantic space is able to remove the potential threat of Ukraine's disintegration and to create best conditions for a parallel complex solving of the national and all-democratic problems of its internal development.
Alongside with that, the present condition of interstate relations within the limits of the OSCE's concern is far from guaranting a stability and constructiivity necessary for Ukraine. It is, first of all, connected with the situation in the post-Soviet region. In addition, Ukraine itself remains a weak component of this system. Its consolidation in the Euro-Atlantic space must be connected with both further transformation of this space and a radical intensification of Ukraine's activities as a subject of international relations.
The specificity of the Euroatlantic Space and Ukraine's Prospects
The Euro-Atlantic space is a unique and the most complicated of the present geopolitical formations. It emerged during the last years as a certain coherent phenomenon, having united the former antagonists - the "West" and the "East" and absorbed the difficult problems of post-confrontation geopolitical transformations. Actually, the basis of it consists in the necessity of a controlled evolution of power relations This space, which consists of two regions, one of them being enlarged at the expence of the other one, first, of all, outlines the format of the post-Communist world evolution and strengthening the enw role of the countries of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) on one hand and of Russia - on the other hand, that causes the emergence of alternative prospects for Ukraine.
The mutually integrated Western states make the Euro-Atlantic community which is the most capable and initiative actor of the present geopolitical transformations and is simultaneously solving three following problems: 1) deepening and improvement of mutual cooperation; 2) involvement of new partners, eastward enlargement; 3) establishing entirely new relations with Russia. This has the greatest influence on changing the situation in the european continent. The collapse of the Eastern bloc created preconditions for reunification of the new Europe, while the USSR collapse caused prospects for more grandiose transformation and creation of a new "Great Europe". But this disintegration also caused new problems. The essense of the latter consists in the internal weakness and vagueness, contradictive character of geopolitical priorities of the new independent states, a slow and uncertain development of social transformations taking place in them.
The renovation of Europe's coherence requires a disintegration of Euro-Asia, a geopolitical re-arrangement of the whole territory of the former Eastern bloc, including the post-Soviet one. The very last circmstance attaches elements of opposiition to this proces. The post-soviet countries have become an object of a geopolitical quarrel and, first of all, of the Russian influence aimed at braking the transformations. The transition period the post-Soviet space is surviving has to result in its cease as a separate coherent region. It is evident that its geopolitical prospects, including the long-term ones, cannot be automatically connected with integration into Europe. By the present, the heterogeneousness of the region has caused intensification of away-from-center trends of both Western and Southern directions. It stipulates the controvercy of the international situation of Russia which is actually doomed to lose the zones of monopolist influence and has to search its natural role in the system of international relations under the new conditions. Moscow is trying to avoid such a prospect and actually straightforwardly impedes the mature transformations. Today it is reflected in the complicated political-diplomatic struggle concerning the geopolitical future of the Baltic states. Without any doubt, the actually postponed dispute as regards the place of Ukraine in the relations Russia-the West will be even more dramatic.
Objectively, the Russian factor is the main obstacle in thransformation of Euro-Asian relations and creation of a homogeneous security system in Europe and in the Euro-Atlantic space as a whole. The scales and military and resource potential of Russia to a great extent determine the parameters of its self-identification and the contents of its interests at international arena. Today everything mentioned is completed with its qualitative internal characteristics, naturally different fron the European ones. First of all, it is reflected in Moscow's non-readiness to observe, to a full extent, the rules and standards of relations in the Euro-Atlantic space, which have long ago been adopted by the CEE countries.
The Russian factor has a controversial nfluence on the whole system of relations in the Euro-Atlantic space. It differently reveals in bilateral relations with the Western states and in the attitude of the Kremlin to NATO, in attempts to impede the enlargement of Euro-Atlantic structures on the CEE and artificially encourage re-integration processes in the territory of CIS, as alternative to all-European ones. At the same time, set-backs of playing at contradictions among particular Western states, at objective difficulties of development of cooperation of post-Communist contries with the West are observed. Besides, the manifests of Russian-American rivalry for influence in Eastern Europe are obvious.
Probably, the Euro-Atlantic community will have to overcome the present non-correspondence of the optimal formats of solving the problems of development and the problems of security. For EU, certainly, the internal problems are the main ones. At the same time, NATO's functions have lost their global character and are actually reduced to providing stability in the European continent. The West and the Center of Europe wll keep the leadership inintegration which has put to the agenda the issue of searching new forms of interaction with the main external partners. In particular, it reflects in discussions regarding the creation of Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Association (TAFTA) as a variant of institutionalization of economic integration, at least within a NATO format.
The West and the Center of Europe will keep the leadership in deepening integration proceses, but a dynamic development of multi-dimensional ties at the periphery of the continent is also most probable. The problem of creation of an appropriate multilateral system of coordination and management will be ever more urgent. In particular, the idea of a "Great Europe" which is a variant of harmonization of regional and less important - superregional relations, can be handy here. At this level and on this scale, the agenda includes the problems of strengthening confidence, providing stability, initial harmonization of national interests, setting up normal cooperation.
The set-up of the new system of relations in the Euro-Atlantic space under its heterogeneousness will take place stage by stage. The rate of this process and prospects of particular countries are connected with both the results of their internal transformations and the requirements of preserving stability. The latter are directly connected with the foreign-policy strategy of Russia.
Geopolitical Coordinates of Ukraine
The Ukrainian state has not acquired clear features as a subject of international relations. Its place and role in the new system of European relationa, which is being formed, are not entirely forseeable. The geopolitical uncertainty of Ukraine is not only a Ukrainian problem. It is an obstacle for building up the new Europe, for strengthening posotive civilizational changes of the latest times. Therefore our stateattracts so much attention playing the role of an important, though passive, actor of international relations.
The logics of the onset of independence determined the isolation of Ukraine from Russia and CIS structures and proclaiming the orientation at integration with Europe. However the state failed to form preconditions for carrying out a positive program - creation of an actual infrastructure for a deliberate foreign policy, adequate to geopolitical realities. The probability of the orthodox left-wing forces' regaining power in Ukraine, as well as sthrengthening of the oligarchy and clan model of the state, constitutes an obstacle for its joining the system of European relations on equal conditions. Actually, it does not concern the growth of external threats, but it would exclude the opportunities of developing effective international ties and caused an attaching to Ukraine a status of outsider.
The specificity of geopolitical coordinates of Ukraine consists in its simultaneous situation in two regions - Europe and Euro-Asia. Trying to become isolated from the re-integration processes in CIS and yielding to its Western partners by the rates of social transformations, Ukraine cannot realize the European alternative and occupies the periphery place in both regions, as a participant of international relations. It is an extremely controversial situation ehich threatens with a growth of an actual isolation. It is not a subject which forms the geopolitical space around itself, and remains a generally passive object of grandeous processes taking place in the new Europe.
The present condition and opportunities of cooperation between Ukraine and its natural partners - the countries of the CEE - cannot prevent the aggravation of qualitative differences between them emerging from different direction and outcome of social transformations. The threat of a new delimitation of Europe as a result of "falling out" of some countries, in particular of Ukraine, from the general paradigm of development still exists. A dangerous lag of Ukraine from the processes of building up the new Europe, a prospect of worsening of geopolitical and therefore - international situation of the state, are evident.
The specific threats are connected with Ukraine's belonging to the post-Soviet space. The latter is a special zone in the system of international relations which is characterized with a geopolitical vagueness, incompleteness, uncertainty of state control, an especially deep and hard-controlled tangle of national and regional determinants. At the same time, the regional relations preserve the features of the former inter-republican ones, and exceed the limits of direct control of international law. Here, the application of international law is not effective, and obligations and guaranties are not reliable.