Strategic planing with account interaction of natural and socioeconomic processes.


Kulish E.V.

Present work is devoted to a problem of developing a system of acceptance of scientifically proved decisions underlying the program of strategic planning, which taken into account specificity of mining regions development.

It is expedient to put principles of cycle and non-uniformity of economic de-velopment in a basis of the analysis and an explanation of the social and economic phenomena. Each own mechanisms are inhered to an industrial stage of country's and region's economy development. The most important among them is cycle of development. For each new period of economic development creation of the indus-trial enterprises of strictly certain branches that formed new economic specialization, an infrastructure, social and economic processes was necessary.

Solution of the problem consist of increasing of forecast objectivity, reliabil-ity and efficiency on the basis of an establishment of unknown before cyclic laws of processes moving in natural and socioeconomic spheres in various spatial and time scales.

Modern socioeconomic infrastructure of Donbass and other mining regions is the result of accumulation of industrial objects created during the various periods of development (industrial cycles). Not having understood in the sense of business cycles, it is impossible to answer a question: how to develop further regional economy.

A lot of phenomena periodically repeat in nature. Economic activities of the people are closely connected with nature. Condition of economy and ecology of advanced mining regions on the world is basically determined by the processes in bowels and "know-how". Hence, cycles of socioeconomic processes is connected with cycles of geodynamic and geophysical processes in a massif of rocks [1]. For revealing specified interrelation it is necessary to analyze parameters of cyclicity, which are intrinsic to natural and man-caused phenomena in lithosphere since they are determinant for development of fuel and energy complex - base of economy.

Numerous researches executed both in CIS, and abroad prove cyclic character of variations of background geophysical processes (periodicity of their incidental display and variability of their speed and intensity), presence of correlation between natural background and derivative socioeconomic processes. Geodynamic and geophysical processes and phenomena occurred in earth' subsurface determine duration and a phase of business cycle. Natural and man-caused accidents cause significant damage to the whole region, destabilize work process of enterprises and either aggravate its crisis condition or become the first point of decreasing wave.

That is why, there are no doubts about urgency and practical value of the ac-count of geophysical processes in ecological and economic crisis of mining regions and in case of development prognosis decisions of economic and ecological policy underlying longterm planning.

One of the most perspective ways of reception of prognosis data on variations of social and economic phenomena is the method of spectrum-time analysis (SVAN), which well recommended itself during investigation of the complex natural phenomena of cyclic character. Result of the spectrum-time analysis is SVAN-diagram. On the horizontal axis time is postponed, values correspond to the centers of time windows. On axis of ordinates we postpone sizes of frequencies in the cy-cles attributed with a time unit. Each column of the histogram represents the peak Furiye' spectrum calculated in the given sliding time window. The big density of points at the diagrams corresponds to the greater spectrum's amplitude (fig. 1). Window length is choused from required detail and actual frequent structure of the process, it is usual from 0,25 to 0,33 from duration of row. Repeatability of dominant rhythms is expressed as dark strips. This attribute shows duration of rhythmic changes existence. About processes intensity we can judge on legends at the SVAN - diagrams.

Results of the analysis with reference to conditions of the region allow reveal-ing duration of each cycle stage, raise forecast objectivity and reliability due to ex-act definition of long-term and intermediate prognosis period during which the predicted tendency will be kept. It will allow to develop effective complex pro-gram of long-term development both for enterprises and for whole region, opti-mum for each stage of the revealed period.

The list of literature: 1. Kulish E.V., Shamaev V.V., Variations of natural and man-caused cyclical processes in development of the mining enterprises. Materials of III conference " Economy and marketing ", Donetsk, 2002. The atlas of time variations of natural, anthropogenous and social processes, vol 2, Cyclic dynamics in the nature and society. M.: 1998.

The list of the literature:

1. Kulish E.V., Shamaev V.V., Variations of natural and man-caused cyclical processes in development of the mining enterprises. Materials of III conference " Economy and marketing ", Donetsk, 2002.

2. The atlas of time variations of natural, anthropogenous and social processes, That 2, Cyclic dynamics(changes) in the nature and a society. M.: 1998.


Kulish E.V. "Strategic planning with account of interaction of natural and socioeconomic processes" Materials of International Scientific Conference of Students and Young Scientists "Economy and Marketing", Donetsk, May. - 2003

Back ]