Elena Karaganova
Donetsk National Technical University, Ukraine
Kyoto protocol is an international program on the fight against the global rising of temperature, in which 157 countries participate in. A scientific theory lies in the basis of protocol. In obedience to this theory the industrial emissions of dioxide of carbon, monoxide of carbon, methane, nitric oxides and lead fluorine-hydrogens lead to that an earthly atmosphere becomes opaque for infra-red rays and begins to be heated. Such heating is named a hotbed effect and can cause irreversible changes of climate of Earth. Ukraine joined to Kyoto protocol in 1999 year and ratified it in February, 4, 2004.
Ukraine has to reduce to 2008 year emissions in the atmosphere of hotbed gases to 5,2% on comparison with 1990. And as a result of the lengthy industrial slump emissions in Ukraine grew short by itself, thus not on 5,2%, and on 28,4%, the obligations on itself do not need to be taken almost no. Vice versa, superfluous 23,2% (that is 300 million of tons of the unproduced hotbed gases in the equivalent CO2) it is possible to sell. An income from trade by this volume of quotas can attain one and a half milliards of dollars, and at definite terms and in once or twice anymore. This sum can underlie technical rearmament of industry, above all iron metallurgy as most polluter of environment.
In opinion of specialists, the Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises have considerable potential of energy saving due to the use of machineries of Kyoto protocol. On the stake of metallurgy there is fifth part of all harmful emissions in Ukraine. Expense of energy on production of ton of metal in three times exceeds average indexes in the world. And the quantity of the emissions of equivalent is the CO2 factories found in direct proportion with energy expense. Black metallurgy uses the equipment wearing of which out makes 6570%. In the conditions of sharply rising power mediums in price the decline of power-consuming of metallurgical enterprises is critically an important factor for further existence of industry.
However Ukraine has the method of the use of benefits of Kyoto protocol, not implying their direct sales. A home economy can get much more from building on the Ukrainian enterprises of cleansing building with participation of foreign investors. As payment our country will share with the surplus of quotas.
Principle is simple: in European Union the level of technologies ecologically dirty productions is such, that cost of their modernization is much higher, than in developing countries. By estimation of the World bank, on every ton of decline of the troop landing CO2 in Ukraine it is necessary to expend 7 dollars only, in Russia 20 , the USA 190, European Union 270, Japan 600 dollars.
Rising of the temperature of climate is the global phenomenon; it means that anywhere in the planet the decline of the emissions happened in, it will give a general effect. If that or other country contracted to shorten the emissions, not nearly necessarily, that it is under an obligation to do it on the territory in harm to the economy.
For Ukraine the economy growing is provided above all things by getting up in base branches of industry. From data of Ministry of fuel and energy, to a 2025 year the emissions of carbon dioxide on Ukrainian power-stations will measure up base 1990 year. The limit on the emissions of the equivalent CO2 we can recover on a few years before even on condition that we will not succeed to sell none ton of surpluses of national quota. If by that time energy saving technologies will not be got in the country of due development, a government will have to resort to the policy of fines.
From point of financial viability, a fine for exceeding of quota on a ton must be in once or twice higher, than market value of surplus of the same ton. In European Union such fine forty euro for the ton CO2 to a 2008 year and one hundred euro after 2008year. After a 2012 year the fines can exceed the one hundred euro for a ton. Then metallurgical combines not able or not having time to complete technical modernization will get in a difficult financial situation. The use of quotas that do not have a special purpose can put Ukraine before the necessity of their purchase in the third countries, what facilities scarcely will be found on. Another way is to stop production that is quite unacceptable.
Thesis about inevitability of the sharp rising in price of power resources is no more than stereotype. Prices on such unrenewable resources, as petroleum, gas, coked coal will constantly rise. But it does not relay to electric power anyway. In France the giant accelerating of elementary particles is built. It is an international project on creation of industrial thermonuclear reactors. Supplies of ocean heavy hydrogen and lunar tritium world thermonuclear energy is enough per the million of years taking into account any imaginable rates of growth of energy consumption by industry, transport, communal economy. Therefore application of electric-arc stoves in metallurgy is the most optimum decision. For example, the owners of the Donetsk metallurgical plant foresee its complete retooling to a 2010 year. Martin production fully will be replaced by electric steelmaking process, for abbreviation of the emissions by blast-furnaces the systems of aspiration and gas-cleaning will be brought in. As a result profitability of enterprise will succeed to be retained at the level of 8-10%, true, on condition that the electric power will not rise in price in earnest. Enormous expenditures on modernization at reasonable approach can be compensated by money from Kyoto. And only in course of time, since a government will manage all list of hard requirements for an output on world exchanges on trade by quotas (creation of single national register of emissions, ecological audit and so on), enterprises, having surpluses of quotas which they created as a result of energy saving, will be able to sell them.
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