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Masters DonNTU Grinchenko Dar'ya Vladimirovna
Grinchenko Dar'ya Vladimirovna

Тheme of masters work: Prognostication of demographic development of region
Supervisor: Serik Alexander Evgenievich
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Abstract
  In structure of base conditions of social and economical development of any region, parameters of a demographic situation, have special value. Forecasting of death rate, birth rate allow to analyze a condition of such major question as, development of a manpower, and the given question is one of the most important conditions of successful market transformation of economy.
  Data about a population are necessary for each country. Government is impossible without these data; they are used in economical, the politician, social and cultural programs. In this connection, for today, there is necessary a studying and the analysis of demographic data and as construction of models and creation programming products allowing to predict numerical structure of the population.

The purpose of work - the analysis of demographic parameters at a territorial level for development of information-analytical system of their estimation on the basis of the analysis and the forecast of these parameters.
The problems solved in master’s work:
1. The analysis of a condition of a question and studying of references on various demographic parameters. The analysis and an estimation of a demographic situation in region.
2. Gathering and the analysis of statistical data.
3. Carrying out of the analysis of parameters of death rate (expected life expectancy), an establishment of laws and development of model describing dynamics of the given parameters.
4. Development of program modules of information-analytical system for the analysis, storages and processings of the information with use of tool means Statistica, programming languages Delphi, PHP and databases MySQL. Object of research of the system of demographic parameters of region. An object of research are models of the analysis and the forecast of demographic parameters. Methods of researches - ordering generalization and the statistical analysis of data демогрфического developments.

  Scientific novelty consists in the following: development of information-analytical system, the analysis, storage and processing of demographic parameters; carrying out of computing experiments and drawing up of the forecast of death rate on the basis of statistical data for Donetsk area; development of model of an estimation of the death rate based on likelihood models of process of life.
  During the research different demographic indeces have been studied, the data about demographic situation in the city of Donetsk have been gathered to create a database. Therefore the following problems remained unsolved: the working out of the model of analysis and demographic indeces forecast. In the nearest future the methods of different demographic data calculations are planned to be systematized and data-analytical system which would allow to estimate the present demographic situation in the region and to make the forecast of the death-rate in the short-term outlook is about to be made.
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