RUS |
UKR |
DonNTU |
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Master's portal of DonNTU | |||
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Semenenko Daryna |
Faculty: Computer Science | |
Speciality: Economical cybernetics | |
Simulation of the prevention of bankruptcy | |
of the industrial enterprises | |
Scientific adviser: Dmitrieva Olga | |
About author |
The modern economic reality makes heads of the enterprises to make decisions in the conditions of uncertainty. In the conditions of financial and political instability the activity of the enterprises has different sequences such as various crisis situations, result of which can be the inconsistency or bankruptcy, and as consequence loss of workplaces and increase social tension. In these conditions there is a necessity of creation the models which can warn bankruptcy at the enterprises.
Questions of the organization and methodology of carrying out of the analysis of bankruptcy are studied but not enough. The standard documents, which regulate the order of carrying out of the analysis and responsibility for the results, are practically absent. Insufficient experience of the analysis and estimation of risk of bankruptcy at the industrial enterprises with using domestic scientific developments is compensated by use of foreign prediction techniques. This techniques give inconsistent results and make prediction of risk of economic crisis and bankruptcy procedure impossible in Ukrainian. That is why problems of using of techniques which diagnose bankruptcy of the enterprise are among the most urgent questions of the economic theory and modern economic practice [9].
Scientific bases of the analysis and estimation of an inconsistency and bankruptcy of firms have been developed for the first time by foreign economists, among which U.Biver, J.Brigzhem, L.Gapenski, Z.Depaljanjan, G.Tishou, C.Prazana, Z.Depaljana, etc.
Particular interest the foreign techniques based on the multiplicate discriminant analysis in the field of crisis development, such as cause E.Altmana's models, Lisica, Taffler, Springejt, Fulmer and other which consider the various factors influencing solvency and financial stability of the enterprise [4].
Alternative approaches to research of a problem of forecasting of bankruptcy, are developed by the Ukrainian economists of Chumachenko N., Lahtionova L., Poddereginym А., Butynets F.
Within the precincts of Donetsk national technical university of a problem of use of techniques of diagnostics of bankruptcy of the enterprises have interested many students – E.I.Chizhikova, E.K.Harlashkina and O.Benesko, led by the supervisor of studies - Olga Dmitrieva [11].
The purpose of the given work is construction of the model adapted on forecasting of bankruptcy of the Ukrainian industrial enterprises, having the specificity of the organization of business.
According to an object in view during research following problems are solved:
the economic essence of an inconsistency, bankruptcy is opened;
the estimation of existing methods and models of forecasting of probability of an inconsistency, bankruptcy is given;
the model of an estimation of a financial condition and risk of approach of an economic inconsistency, bankruptcy of the industrial enterprises is developed and approved.
look-ahead ability of discriminant models of an estimation and forecasting of risk of bankruptcy - models of Teffler, Savitsky, concerning the industrial enterprises in modern conditions of domestic economy is specified;
the model which basis is Altman's developed by means of the device of the plural discriminant analysis the model, without the fourth factor in which the total market stock value of the enterprise appears is received [5].
For successful management In conditions of market economy the estimation of probability of bankruptcy at the enterprise became very urgent. In Ukraine there is no standard domestic technique of definition of probability of bankruptcy of subjects of management. That is why it is necessary to use foreign methodical approaches in which factorial models of prediction of bankruptcy at the enterprises and the organizations are put [3].
For this reason the author offers the model which will be based on Altman's model , wich uses the plural discriminant analysis, without the fourth factor in which the total market value of the enterprise is used. At the moment in Ukraine there is no information about a market value of the majority of the enterprises, and in the conditions of underdevelopment of a secondary equity market at the majority of the organizations the given indicator loses the meaning.
Application of the this model for diagnostics of a financial condition of the Ukrainian enterprises will considerably increase quantity of the enterprises which have developed a number of actions for struggle against bankruptcy and avoided it.
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11. Портал магистров ДонНТУ http://masters.donntu.ru/index.html