Natali Berezhnaya

University:                                 Institute of Mining and Geology

Specialty:                             Geographic Information Systems and Technology

Work theme:                             Research model expert money estimation of land

                                                      in large cities (Kiev).

Supervisor:                               Mogilny S. G.

Main

Purpose:  study, analysis and taking the mathematical theory of fuzzy sets for peer review of land. Application of fuzzy sets in the medium ArcGis.

Research tasks:

1. Examine the existing theoretical approaches, concepts and techniques of monetary assessment.

2. Analyze the stages of monetary expert evaluation and research methods of mathematical modeling.

3. Explore and develop the mathematical model of the structural decision for monetary valuation of a land.

      Relevance of the work: Big urbanization of the population and the industrialisation makes the land of the city an unique resource, the effectiveness of which depends on national economic and social development. Therefore, the definition of the real price of  the land is on great importance for the commission of property-related agreements with the land.

     Standard methods for land evaluation are subjective in nature, that is dependent on qualifications and experience of an expert assessor. Using methods of mathematical modeling would expand the validity of the final decision, in particular, the use of fuzzy sets given by the accuracy of records for information, which is inherently uncertain [3].

        So, the relevance of this work is authentic deciding market value of the land on the basis of a large city.

 Scientific novelty: is the application of certain mathematical tools that will allow the processing of the completely different characteristics of each plots with the most reliable of the results of their market value.

Summary of the results.

       According to national standards № 1 "Fundamentals of property valuation and property rights" [a], and number 2, "Assessment of real property" [2], expert monetary valuation of Ukraine held on the following methodological approaches:

- Comparison of sale prices of such land;

- Capitalization of net income;

- Cost accounting for construction of real estate on the land.

      These methods correspond to the International Valuation Standards Section I «Market Value Basis of Valuation" [4]. The most common method in the practice of developed countries is the method of sales comparison, and the least used - the cost approach, because according to the National standard number 1, it "should be used to assess real estate market for sale or lease of which is limited, specialized real estate property, including immovable cultural heritage sites, structures, pre-extensions, and so forth. To determine the market value of other objects assess the cost method is used when their replacement or reproduction is physically possible, and (or) economically feasible". Profitable method would be appropriate in assessing the land, which makes a profit from renting it to rent separately from the building and facilities. The models are based mainly on linear regression dependence, which don’t give enough inadequate regard to the multiplicity of factors assessment. The models are based on the rules worked out by experts for the market of other classes of real estate, such as apartments, generally provides results that are contrary to each other and not amenable to reasonable interpretation and synthesis of a reliable method of assessment. These models do not take into account the vagueness and uncertainty that is inherent in the market for such objects.

       So, the above methodological approaches to assess, as the most objective in a big city and favorable for modeling, was selected market method or the method of comparison market sales.

     After studies of valuation of land plots of different countries, including Russia, it have been formulated the modeling steps of this method. Fundamental decisions in choosing the steps implementing the method have been made on the basis of scientific fundamental works of Candidate of Economic Sciences Shcherbakov E.Y.

Stages include:

1) Building database of existing sales, which were evaluated by experts;

2) Analysis of the existing facility sale, which inquired with the preparation of the characteristic vector, which amply describes it;

3) Comparison the object that have being inquired with the objects of each class series, which includes:

      a) Evaluation of the degree of belonging to the class;

      b) Construction of regression relationships of the factors that are essential for this class;

      c) Amendment to each object class, with appropriate adjustments in its cost;

      d) A comparison the object with each objects of this class, with the definition of measures of similarity between them;

4) Addition obtained on the basis of the monetary estimates of the construction of the characteristic function of the value of the investigated area;

     Based on the general concept of constructing a model of expert evaluation modeling method based on complete and accurate database of objects that have already passed peer review, the database should be based on the model of fuzzy relational database.

    Implementation of such a database is planned in the medium ArcGis.

     Thus, it was designed a series of requirements for its preparation and formation. These requirements include processing of linguistic variables, and include:

   1) establish classes of objects of evaluation;

   2) the formation of the zone of permissible values of the monetary assessment for each object;

   3) the formation of the characteristics of objects;

   4) the appointment of the weight coefficients of the characteristics of objects according to their destination;

   5) the appointment of the rules of quantification of linguistic variables;

   6) determination of the degree of similarity between objects of one class.

      The structure of the recording of such database is determined based on the aggregation of points the opinions of experts and should comprehensively include all the factors, which may be taken into account when considering the plot. Moreover, these factors will include both the measured, clear specifications, and subjective, linguistic characteristics.

Bibliography

1. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine "On approval of national standard number 1," General principles of property valuation and property rights, of 10 September 2003 N 1440

2. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine "On approval of national standard number 2" Assessment of real property "of 28 October 2004 N 1442

3. Meteshkin K.A., Patrakeev  I.M., Evdokimov A.A. Improving the capacity of GIS through the use of fuzzy sets [electronic resource] http://www.nbuv.gov.ua/portal/natural/soi/2008_5/Meteshk.pdf

4. Standard 1 "Market Value Basis of Valuation [electronic resource] http://www.ocenka.net/institute/editions/files/book2.pdf