Author: Timoshenko I., Mazur O.
Source: Development of the national and international business in the modern format of the world economic system
/ the 22th of april 2010,Student Scientific Conference, Donetsk, DonNTU
The economic development of society peculiar to definite cyclic – slops and slumps. Economic cycle – it is motion from one phase of cycle to next phase , through alternate with slops and slumps of business activity. The economic cycle definite of continuance and depth. Nowadays the most palpable economic process is world financial crisis.
Modern economic model was the result of a crisis in the 1970s. This was a terrible financial crisis that was the result of surplus capital. Even the 19th-Century classics in economics literature concluded that capital grows faster than labor provides compensation. As a result, there is a lack of demand. In traditional capitalism, this problem is solved on account of crises in excess production. And in an imperialistic system, the problem is solved on account of capital outflow. To run the crisis of over production was impossible , because west world was in conditionals of confrontation with system of socialism.
Besides there was no place to take out the capital since India and China were not generated yet as the capital markets. But by the 1970s, these solutions had run their course. However, the international situation demanded the U.S. either make a great scientific and technological leap forward or lose the Cold War to the USSR. The administration of President Jimmy Carter and the head of the Financial Reserve System Paul Walker developed a very tricky concept by stimulate Carter's Presidential Administration and head of the Financial Reserve System Paul Volker have developed the concept on stimulation of cumulative demand for the account of issue of dollar. Prompt growth of economy occurred at the expense of resources which should provide growth in the future. The country has spent the resources for two generations forward. States accumulated debts. It is clearly visible if to compare schedules of growth of debts of households and all cumulative debt of the USA and the American gross national product. The economy grew with a speed 2 – 3, a maximum of 4 percent a year. At times fell to a minus. Are long constantly grow with a speed 8 – 10 percent. Stimulating a consumer demand, Americans have created the state with extremely high standard of living. Generations of the people, not got used to live in poverty have grown. As had an additional source of resources – credits. But eternally it is impossible to live on loan. The debt volume became too great, debts of households have exceeded national economy volume – more than 14 billion dollars. Has come it is time to pay tick. By the way, the pyramid of state credit obligations in Russia in 1998 has in the same way collapsed. Scale of the budget of the country became insufficiently to pay on debts of state credit obligations. All has ended with a default.
The economic crisis of 2008–2009 in Ukraine was a consequence of world financial crisis, escalating of negative foreign trade balance and an external debt, becoming complicated political crisis and crisis of consumer crediting. In 2009 according to the analysis of the World bank the economy of Ukraine has sharply worsened because of negative conditions of trade and a reshaping of streams of the capital, and the greatest risk for Ukraine is represented by the fiscal disbalance caused by falling of budgetary incomes, account budgetary obligations and considerable financial requirements of Naftogaz
.
The economic crisis in Ukraine, in general, became a consequence of crisis political. Permanent fierce political strike has led to competition of political forces in social populism that was accompanied by growth of bureaucratic intervention in economy.
The Ukrainian economy was not ready to crisis since gross national product level in precritical 2007 has made only 72,2 % from level of 1990. crisis has mentioned almost all spheres of economy. The crisis phenomena in bank sphere have started to be shown in second half of 2008. The Ukrainian banks, especially, supervised by the foreign capital, had possibility easily to receive cheap and, as a rule, short-term credits at foreign banks, and for the account of these resources to give out more expensive and more long-term credits in Ukraine. After the beginning of hypothecary crisis in the USA, the situation has started to vary gradually as the western banks have been compelled to raise rates under the credits that has led to rise in price of the credit of the Ukrainian banks, reduction of crediting of building, especially housing. During 2008 ukrainian hrivna devaluated on 38 % in relation to US dollar that was the best indicator only in comparison with the Icelandic crone and Seychelles rupee. The economic crisis has continued development within 2009. For January–April, 2009 industrial production falling in Ukraine has made 31,9 % in comparison with an average index across the CIS of 9 %; the inflation gain has made 19,1 % (in annual calculation) in comparison with 14 % of inflation on the CIS; the volume of retail goods turnover in Ukraine has fallen to 14,4 % at 3 % on the average across the CIS. The cabinet has forbidden Goskomstat to publish the given changes of gross national product in I quarter 2009. According to Goskomstat falling of gross national product of Ukraine in the first quarter has made 20,3 %, in the second quarter — 18 % (in comparison with the similar period of previous year). By calculations of professor A.Revenko, the Ukrainian expert according to the international comparisons, in the first quarter 2009 Ukrainian gross national product has fallen in relation to 1990 to 61,5 %, approximately to level 2004 (61,0 %) and 2005 (62,7 %) years
. According to Audit Chamber of Ukraine of gross national product in the first half of the year 2009 has made 59,5 % from level of 1990, thus about 40 % of gross national product was in a shade that meant short-reception of gathering in the budget.
According to the World bank during the first quarter 2009, receipt of investments into a fixed capital has decreased on 48,7 %, receipt of investments into private business has decreased on 11,6 %, real export has fallen to 15,9 % while reduction of internal demand and exchange rate correction have caused sharp reduction of import (-36.6 %).
In my opinion, for an exit of Ukraine from crisis, it is necessary to overcome political instability, to spend a number of reforms in problem areas of the legislation, to give concessionary terms to small and average business, to raise investment appeal, and also to involve investments into the Ukrainian science, to give the state help to the industrial enterprises since the Ukrainian export in many respects depends on metallurgy. Also it is necessary to reconsider the gas contract with Russia because the Russian gas is a vital resource for the Ukrainian industry.