Abstract
Содержание
Introduction
GENERAL Otseneno Effect factors hozyaystvennoho line on operatsyonnuyu Activities uholnыh mines. Primary tselju enterprise activities in dolhosrochnom period javljaetsja Provision maksymyzatsyy rыnochnoy The cost of the enterprise, to bring something for the Increase blahosostoyanyya sobstvennykov company. This dostyhaetsya putem maksymyzatsyy profit. Consequently, profit – Basic result of activities of the enterprise.
1. Goal and tasks of the research
Determination of the total influence of factors of economic risk on the operations of coal mines, which will more accurately plan their main financial and economic results.
2. Theme urgency
The overall political and economic instability, the decline of investments in industry, social tension, lack of a sufficient legal base and effective management system specifically affect the activity of primary industries. In modern conditions of prime importance uncertainties, which make a significant and often decisive influence on the performance of the business entities. Factors of uncertainty and randomness lead to adverse situations and consequences for enterprises which reduce the effectiveness of the implementation of planned tasks and projects, including investment, and could lead to additional losses.
To Donbass especially important is the efficiency of the functioning of the coal enterprises. Energy security and reduce dependence on imported energy demand maximum utilization of coal reserves, most of which are concentrated in the Donetsk coal basin and account for 87% of the total coal reserves in Ukraine. Therefore, the study of uncertainties affecting the operations of the coal enterprises to further the possibility of reducing or neutralizing, is an actual scientific task.
However, it should be noted that the coal industry in Ukraine is characterized by a high level of risk compared to other sectors of the economy, due to the characteristics of the coal industry, such as volatility and sometimes unpredictable geological conditions, unsteadiness subject of work, place of work, heavy working conditions. In such an unfavorable background of negative factors crucial role gets proper planning of a coal mine with the conditions of uncertainty and stochastic factors affecting its operation.
However, it should be noted that the coal industry in Ukraine is characterized by a high level of risk compared to other sectors of the economy, due to the characteristics of the coal industry, such as volatility and sometimes unpredictable geological conditions, unsteadiness subject of work, place of work, heavy working conditions. In such an unfavorable background of negative factors crucial role gets proper planning of a coal mine with the conditions of uncertainty and stochastic factors affecting its operation.
3. Мain part
The basic principle of the company is in pursuit of profit maximization. Thus, profit is the main product of the company. The value of gross margin is defined as follows:
П = ЧД – S
де ЧД – od pure dohіd realіzatsії viroblenoї produktsії, UAH.
S – sobіvartіst viroblenoї produktsії, UAH.
Pіdstavivshi rozpisanі quantities BH S i in the formula (1) of otrimaєmo Taqiy viraz:
П = (Ц / (1 + а) – Спер) x Q – Спост
Thus, the profit from the sale of manufactured products, in turn, depends on the volume of production (coal), its production costs, prices and taxes. The formation of these variables are influenced by various internal and external risk factors that may lead to deviations in the positive or the negative side, and as a result of a decrease or loss of profits whatsoever.
Accurate prediction of the planned task or project can not, under any circumstances, since there is always the uncertainty of forecasting of the environment, but there are special techniques that make it possible not only to determine more or less precisely the set of possible scenarios, but also to describe the behavior of enterprises and terms of reference for the implementation of the selected situations. Estimate the value of the risk factors of production, with random, by using the statistical characteristics of the expected profit, the variance and expectation. This requires the development and use of models to predict the main indicators of the company.
The study was carried out on the basis of prediction of profit simulation. In order to simulate possible magnitude gains with different risk factors necessary to determine the random variables in expression 2 as well as their distribution laws. On the basis of available studies on mines price value of 1 ton of coal for different parties and coal production were considered as random variables, and the variable and fixed costs are conditionally accepted deterministic. Investigations using the values daily production for the year at different mines on the basis of which the dependence of the standard deviation (actual production from a planned) of the actual production. This dependence can be used to determine the standard deviation for any production at the various mines, as analysand a large number of actual data values daily production in the mines with different levels of profitability and production volume. Distributions were determined experimental values production by month and the price of 1 ton of coal, which were then distributed using a random number generator according to a certain law. Fixed and variable costs were determined by the least squares method. The expression of two substitute values random variables price of 1 ton of coal and the monthly production, distributed by certain law. Simulated thousand sales Gross profit was defined its distribution function, which in the future will assess the risk of profit (loss) and to predict its value, taking into account the risk factor.
Figure 2 – Distribution of daily production at the mine Yuzhnodonbasskaya №3 them. N.S.Surgay
(animation: 8 frames, 5 cycles of repeating, 61.1 kilobytes)
Conclusion
The proposed model allows forecasting gross margins to take into account the impact of such important indicators of the company as the production of coal and the price of 1 ton of coal, which in turn reflect the cumulative effect of a large number of interrelated factors of uncertainty. Using the proposed model would ensure the adequacy of its current economic conditions, taking into account the production situation in the coal plant.
References
- Машина Н. І. Економічний ризик і методи його вимірювання: Навчальний посібник. / Н. І. Машина – Київ: Центр навчальної літератури, 2003. – 188 с.
- Петросов А. А., Мангуш К. С. Экономические риски горного производства. / А. А. Петросов, К. С. Мангуш – М.: Изд.-во Моск. горного ун.-та, 2002. – 142 с.
- Мартякова Е. В. Хозяйственные риски: оценка, и прогнозирование: Монография. / Е. В. Мартякова, И. В. Кочура – Донецк: ДВНЗ «ДонНТУ», 2008. – 220 с.