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Abstract

Contents

Relevance of the topic

Demographic indicators, such as fertility, mortality, migration, are the main factors determining the composition of the population and its changes. Understanding these indicators and forecasting them is of great importance for making political, economic and social decisions. Demographic processes are complex and depend on many factors, including social, economic, cultural and political. Accurate analysis and forecasting of demographic indicators requires the use of modern methods and technologies.

It should be noted that existing systems for recording demographic indicators often have limited capabilities and do not use all available data and methods for analysis and forecasting. The development of an intelligent information system can improve the accuracy, efficiency and reliability of recording and forecasting demographic indicators. Therefore, intelligent information systems are based on modern methods of data analysis, machine learning, artificial intelligence and other technologies. Their application in the analysis and forecasting of demographic indicators can significantly improve the quality of results and improve decision-making based on this data. An intelligent information system for recording and forecasting demographic indicators can be useful not only for government agencies and scientific researchers, but also for various organizations and companies that require population data for their activities. Based on these factors, we can conclude about the importance and relevance of developing an intelligent information system for recording and forecasting demographic indicators, which can increase the accuracy and efficiency of analysis and forecasting, as well as help in making informed decisions based on demographic data [1].

The goal of the work on the topic “Intelligent information system for recording and forecasting demographic indicators” is to develop a comprehensive system that will effectively take into account and predict demographic indicators based on various data sources, analysis methods and artificial intelligence technologies.

When carrying out the work, you can divide the research into the following points:

  1. The initial point is to review existing sources of data on demographic indicators, such as data on fertility, mortality, migration and other factors influencing population change.
  2. The next point is the selection and development of models and methods of data analysis for accounting and forecasting demographic indicators. This may include statistical analyses, machine learning, time series and other advanced methods.
  3. Based on the developed models and methods, it is possible to create an intelligent information system that will integrate and process data, as well as provide the user with the opportunity to analyze and obtain forecasts of demographic indicators.
  4. The developed system must be checked for correctness and efficiency. This includes making test forecasts on historical data and comparing the results obtained with actual indicator values.
  5. Ultimately, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of the developed system. It is necessary to determine how much it improves accuracy and predictive ability compared to existing methods, and to determine its applicability in various fields, including public administration, urban infrastructure planning, social and economic research, and others.

As a result of successful implementation, an intelligent information system is created that will effectively take into account and predict demographic indicators based on modern methods and technologies. The intelligent information system for recording and forecasting demographic indicators is a powerful tool for analyzing and predicting population dynamics [2]. Its main task is to collect, process and analyze data on fertility, mortality, migration and other factors influencing changes in the size and structure of the population.

1. Scope

Scope of application of intelligent information systems for accounting and forecastingThe study of demographics is broad and includes many things. Namely, public administration and planning, it is noted here that demographic data is a key factor in public administration and planning of various social and economic programs. Intelligent information systems enable government and government agencies to effectively analyze and use demographic data to develop appropriate policies and decisions.

When planning urban infrastructure, the use of information systems is no less important, since demographic data helps city authorities plan infrastructure development, such as the construction of residential complexes, schools, hospitals and transport networks. Intelligent systems for recording and forecasting demographic indicators provide more accurate forecasts of the size and needs of the population, which allows optimizing the planning and use of resources [3].

Demographic data provide an important basis for social and economic research. Intelligent information systems allow researchers to effectively analyze and model the relationships between demographic factors and other socio-economic indicators, such as income, employment, education, etc.

It is also worth noting that intelligent information systems make it possible to forecast demographic indicators for future periods. Through the use of various data analysis techniques and models, such as time series, machine learning and statistical models, the systems are able to predict future trends and changes in the population, taking into account various development scenarios.

Intelligent information systems for recording and forecasting demographic indicators combine the advantages of modern technologies of artificial intelligence, data analysis and processing of large volumes of information [4]. They provide in-depth analysis of demographics and help in making informed decisions in various areas of society.

2. Analysis of demographic indicators

Analysis of demographic indicators is an important part of the work of an intelligent information system for recording and forecasting demographic indicators. During the analysis process, the system uses available data on fertility, mortality, migration and other factors influencing population change to obtain a complete picture of the demographic situation.

The analysis process may include the following steps:

  1. Data collection and processing. The information system collects data from various sources, such as government statistical services, databases, surveys and other sources. After collecting data, the system processes it, including cleaning, standardizing and converting it into a convenient format for analysis.
  2. Identification and study of trends. The system analyzes long-term and short-term trends in demographic indicators. This may include analysis of changes in fertility, mortality, migration, age structure of the population and other indicators. Identification and study of trends allows the system to identify key factors influencing the demographic situation.
  3. Spatial analysis. The system analyzes demographic indicators at the geographic level. This allows us to identify differences and inequalities in the demographic situation between different regions or population groups. Spatial analysis can be useful for planning and decision-making at the regional or city level.
  4. Modeling and forecasting. Using statistical models, machine learning and other data analysis techniques, the system can model and forecast demographic indicators for future periods. This allows government, organizations and the public to gain insight into future demographics and use this information to plan and develop strategies.
  5. Visualization of results. An intelligent information system can present analysis results in the form of visual graphs, charts, maps and other formats. This helps system users better understand and interpret data, identify relationships and trends, and communicate results and findings with stakeholders.

Analysis of demographic indicators within the framework of intelligent information systems contributes to more effective planning and decision-making in various fields, such as public administration, social planning, healthcare, education and other areas where demographic factors play a significant role.

3. Sources of population data

An objective assessment of the demographic situation and demographic policy can be carried out on the basis of adequatecorrect information [5]. All types of information about the population are divided into continuous observations (population censuses, current records of natural and migration movements of the population, population registers) and sample demographic surveys, including the so-called microcensuses (Figure 1.1.). New sources of information in the structure of population data are big data (geographic information systems, texts from search engines, social and professional systems).

Microcensus

Figure 1 – Sources of population data
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The recommendations of the UN Statistical Commission give the following definition of population censuses: “A population census is a single process of collecting, processing, assessing, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data relating at a certain time to all persons in a country or a clearly defined part of it.” "

The population census is one of the main types of demographic information, allowing to obtain data on the size, distribution of the population, its socio-demographic structure, as well as special materials on the family composition and reproduction of the population, its migration and socio-economic mobility, necessary for development all areas of social life and scientific study of the population.

Another important source of population data is the current record of natural and migration movements of the population. Vital and migration accounting is the process of collecting, by recording, information about the frequency of specific vital and migration events, and the characteristics of the individuals involved in the event, developing, analyzing, and publishing the data. The basis of any accounting system is legislation, which determines which events are subject to registration, and the establishment of appropriate bodies whose function is the civil registration of demographic events.

Based on data on natural and migration movements of the population, the annual population of each territory is calculated, necessary both for management needs and for comparative comparisons and research, including in international practice; the dynamics of the intensity of demographic and migration processes is calculated, trends in population reproduction in the country, region, and world are analyzed.

The uniformity of the program and methods for recording demographic events is ensured by the recommendations of international organizations (UN Statistical Commission, World Health Organization, Economic Commission for Europe, etc.).

Sample demographic surveys - the study of the structural components of the population and additional data to study issues of population reproduction based on the collection of data on a part of the population using certain methods.

The use of the sampling method allows you to increase the amount of information while reducing costs, speed up the development of materials, increase their accuracy and assess the parameters of the general population [6]. These advantages of the sampling method have led to its widespread use since the first half of the 20th century in the form of special sample socio-demographic surveys, the largest of which are “microcensuses”.

Population registers are an individual system of information about each person based on permanent record keeping.

Registers cover the permanent or legal population of a country. Like the current accounting of natural and migration movements of the population, registers are based on a system of laws obliging each person to provide data about himself, as well as to report all changes of a socio-economic, demographic and migration nature. They exist in the form of an electronic database in the form of both national and regional registers [8].

Sources of population information are used for different purposes and have different tasks, so their interchangeability is impossible. Each type of data has its own advantages and disadvantages.

General population censuses and current records of natural and migration movements of the population most fully and reliably take into account the population and demographic events, but the cost of their conduct and data development is quite expensive. In addition, on their basis it is impossible to obtain comprehensive information on issues of population reproduction and population development trends.

Population registers are the most representative accounting system (database), on the basis of which you can obtain not only complete information about the size and structure of the population, reproduction rates, but also about the fate of real generations, families, eachpeople Maintaining this system requires complete computerization of the entire territory of the country, the prevalence of remote access technologies, and compliance with the confidentiality of personal data [7]. The register system also has shortcomings, primarily related to the incomparability of programs and the organization of registers in individual countries.

Sample demographic surveys, with their lower labor and financial costs, do not in all cases reflect the general population, and to be fully representative they must be sufficiently voluminous. In addition, it is necessary to maintain comparability of data, both over time and with other sources of population registration.

Big data. Big data (geographic information systems, texts from search engines, social and professional systems) are just beginning to be mastered by statistical agencies. At the present time, these sources relate to different types of observation (geographic information systems are used in population censuses, text data in various studies of population behavior from certain groups, epidemiological studies of individual territories

4. Information systems that are used to record demographic indicators

There are several information systems that are used to record demographic indicators. Here are some of them:

  1. UN Population and Demography Information System. This system provides access to statistical information on population, fertility, mortality, migration and other demographic indicators for various countries and regions. It is based on data collected and maintained by the United Nations (UN) and its specialized agencies.
  2. World Bank's Data Catalog. The World Bank provides access to a wide range of data on various aspects of development, including demographic indicators. Their information system contains data on population, fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization and other demographic factors for various countries and regions.
  3. Eurostat Information System. Eurostat is the statistical agency of the European Union, which collects and provides data on various aspects of life in EU member states. Eurostat provides access to population statistics, fertility, mortality, migration, employment and other demographic indicators for EU countries.
  4. Information system. Global Health Observatory: This system, developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), provides data and information on various aspects of health at the global level. It includes data on infant and maternal mortality, fertility, family planning, vaccinations and other health-related demographics.
  5. National statistical services. Many countries have their own national statistical offices that collect and maintain information on demographic indicators. They may have their own information systems or databases that provide access to national-level population statistics, fertility, mortality and other demographic characteristics.

These are just a few of the information systems used to track demographics. Indirectly, such data may also be provided by health, social care and research organizations.

Conclusions

An intelligent information system for recording and forecasting demographic indicators plays an important role in population analysis and planning. Such a system combines collected data on population, fertility, mortality and other demographic factors, and then uses it to analyze and create forecasts.

The advantages of using an intelligent information system in recording and forecasting demographic indicators include:

  1. Processing large volumes of data. The intelligent system is capable of processing and analyzing large volumes of data, which allows for more accurate forecasts and trends regarding the population.
  2. Process automation. The system can automate the collection of data from various sources, which reduces the time spent on manual information entry and increases the accuracy of the results.
  3. Identification of hidden patterns. Intelligent systems are capable of detecting hidden patterns and relationships in data that may not be apparent through traditional analysis methods.
  4. Forecasting future trends. Through data analysis and modeling, an intelligent system can create demographic forecasts that help in resource planning and policy development.
  5. Uluchdecision making. An intelligent information system provides up-to-date and accurate information that can be used to make more informed decisions about demographics and social policy.

It should be noted, however, that an intelligent information system is a tool, and its results must be considered in the context of other factors and expert opinion. It is also important to consider ethical issues and ensure privacy and data protection when using such a system.

List of sources

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