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ANNOTATION
1. Introduction. The analysis of an actuality.
Investment
activity is inherent in any enterprise. Importance of the economic analysis for
planning and realization of investment activity is difficult for estimating.
The preliminary analysis is special importance. It is spent at a stage of
development of investment projects and further acceptance of the reasonable and
decision-making process.
Decision-making
process on an investment becomes complicated following factors: plurality of
accessible variants of capital investments;
Limitation of
financial resources for investment; the risk application-specific with
decision-making process on investment, and ect.
The degree of the responsibility is
various for acceptance of the investment project . Often decisions should be
accepted in conditions when there is a number of alternative. In this case it
is necessary to make a choice of one or several projects, being based on any
criteria. It is obvious, that such criteria can be more than one, and the
probability of that any one project will be more preferable than others by all
criteria, much less unit. Therefore there is a problem of optimization of an
investment portfolio. It is necessary to give for investors an economic
substantiation of capital investments, therefore activity on system
engineering of investment projects estimation is actual.
Investment
activity is always carried out in conditions of uncertainty which degree can
vary considerably. Therefore decisions are accepted on an intuitive logic
footing often , but, it should be supported with economic calculation.
Therefore the system of investment projects efficiency and risk estimation is
necessary for work of the head, the investor, the manager.
2. The objectives and tasks.
Overall
objective of developed strategy is development the tool of a choice the project
by efficiency and the risk, connected with use of investments, on the basis of
methods and models of the investment analysis. Used models are called to
provide optimization of decisions in strategic aspects of investment
management.
Tasks of the
investment analysis consist: in a substantiation of expediency of the
investment project; in a choice of the optimum project from possible
alternatives; in an estimation of efficiency and maintenance of profitableness
of the project through the certain period; in an estimation of a degree of risk
of the investment project.
The basic stage
is calculation of parameters of efficiency of the future investments in an
estimation the investment project efficiency. Besides a parameter of risk is
calculation the purpose of increase the investment strategy efficiency.
3. Choice the
method of efficiency investment projects estimation.
Most the wide
circulation in a world and domestic practice was received with a technique of
an estimation of real investments on the basis of system of the following
interconnected parameters: net present value; Profitability Index; Payback
Period; internal rate of return; Discounted Payback Period; Modified Internal
Rate of Return; arrange Rate of Return .
It is obvious,
that each of the aforecited parameters has the distinctive advantages and
imperfections, therefore for acceptance of the proved investment decisions
sharing the given parameters as they allow the person making a decision with
the different sides is necessary to efficiency of the investment project
estimate. Such estimation can be expressed as a total estimation of all
parameters i.e. if as a result of calculations not less than 60 % of parameters
will appear positive it is possible to consider the project effective,
otherwise - inefficient.
Thus, the offered approach to reception of the investment decision
will enable on the basis of the generalized parameter from different directions
to estimate investment projects and to make the final decision on their
efficiency.
4. Choice the
method of risk investment projects estimation.
For risk investment projects estimation in the classical analysis are used qualitative
(the analysis of relevance of expenses, a method of analogies, a method of
expert estimations) and quantitative (a statistical method, the analysis of
sensitivity, a method of check of stability, a method of scripts, imitating
modelling, a method of updating of the rate of discounting) methods of risk
estimation.
However qualitative methods allow to consider possible high-risk
situations and to describe all variety of risks investment project, but results
of an estimation possess not so high objectivity and accuracy. Use of
quantitative methods enables to receive a numerical the project riskiness
estimation, to define a degree of influence of risk factors on its efficiency.
It is possible to carry necessity of presence of great size of the initial
information for the long period of time (a statistical method); complexities at
definition of laws of distribution of researched parameters and resultant
parameters (a statistical method, a method of Monte-Carlo); the isolated
consideration of change of one factor without taking into account influence of
others (the analysis of sensitivity, a method of check of stability), etc.
Also it is obvious, that the requirement of determinancy of entrance data is unjustified
simplification of a reality as any investment project is characterized by set
of factors of uncertainty. Factors of uncertainty define of the project risk.
Overcoming of these imperfection probably at use of the theory of the fuzzy
sets, allowing to generate a full spectrum of scripts the investment project
realization.
From considered above it is possible to draw a conclusion, that due
to decrease in a level of uncertainty the degree of risk decreases. Thus, the
investor has an effective tool of the control investment process efficiency.
It is visible also, that the more considerably uncertainty of
initial data, the hight risk. Therefore in some cases the investor is simply
obliged to refuse decision-making and to take additional measures on struggle
against uncertainty. The investor can interpret values as
linguistic variable, and thus designate for itself border
behind which uncertainty ceases to be comprehensible.
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