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Abstract

Content

Introduction, Background and Purpose and objectives of the research, the expected results

The purpose and relevance of the master's work - an analysis of pricing processes in the mobile market of Ukraine, to develop economic and mathematical models describing the dynamics of changes in the prices of basic and additional services to domestic mobile operators. In today's economy of Ukraine all big, I can even say, the strategic role for information and communication technologies (ICT). Almost half of the domestic ICT market of mobile communications. The crisis is now rapidly growing ICT market share in the total GDP of the country has a tendency to decrease, so the task of studying this sector of the economy from the standpoint of determining the causes of decline and to identify growth factors - there is an urgent task. Thus, the problem of the development of mathematical tools for the study of processes of pricing in the domestic market for mobile services is relevant for companies operating in this segment of the market, and for the state and the population.

1.Overview of the current state of the problem of pricing in the mobile market

Analysis of literature and learning materials has shown that many of the problems associated with the economic-mathematical modeling of processes of pricing, increasing the competitiveness of the enterprise telekommunikatsionnoi industry in general and mobile communications in particular, have not found a complete solution in the domestic and in the world ekonomicheskoi science. Previous studies have virtually no pricing issues related to basic and advanced mobile services, mechanisms vzaimodeistviya Sobo between market participants and with the state. Among the most significant activities affecting pricing issues for different models of the market and the issues of balance in the markets, it should be otnesti works predctavitelei mirovoi ekonomicheskoi thoughts: J. Bertrand, J. Beina, L. Walras, SA Kurno, A. Marshall, and many others. The development of mathematical models of the dynamics osnovana on the use of econometric tools represented by the works of SA. Aivazyana, K. Grendzhera, D. Dickie, C. Dougherty, S. Iohansena, J. Clement, J. MakKinnona, Y. Mhitaryana etc. The study of pricing issues and balance on prostranstvenno separated markets nesovershennoi competition held in studies O. Blanshara, K. Rogoffa, M. Obstfelda, AG Granberga, PA. Krugmana, P. Camuelsona, AM Teilora. The disadvantages of the above works is the fact that the details regarding pricing mechanisms depending on konkretnoi market model for the practice can not make a decision about optimal prices for products or services of the company, working in a particular market, the characteristics of which do not fit into any of the mathematical model of that exist at present.

2. Goal and tasks of the research

Structural and functional analysis of the mobile market Statistical data for analysis and study of the domestic mobile market is largely derived from the information and analytical reports «iKS-Consulting» - the international agency that provides analytical services and management consulting in the field of telecommunications, information technology and media in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries and "Praim-TASS," RBC, «AK & M». The domestic mobile market is characterized by a limited number of major market participants, these include, first of all, Kyivstar, MTS Ukraine, life :), Intertelekom, Ukrtelecom, and Peoplenet and until recently the ITC. According to analysts for the year 2010-2012, all operators have increased their subscriber base in a quantitative sense to build a subscriber base of leading Kyivstar. The largest increase in% showed Intertelekom (5.3%), followed by Ukrtelecom (4.5%) and Kyivstar (2.1%). As for the market share occupied (Fig. 1), the top three are unchanged.

At the end of December 2012 the total subscriber base of Ukrainian mobile operators amounted to 54.7 million users, penetration increased by 126%. After 2012, the Ukrainian market of only 6 players left, after absorbing Intertelekoma subscriber base ITC. The number of mobile subscribers in Ukraine is slowly but surely growing - not for the first month, analysts noted the positive dynamics of the market, despite the fact that mobile penetration in the country, according to iKS-Consulting at the end of September amounted to 123.6%. Ukrainian division of the analytical agency iKS-Consulting prepared a rating of communication in Ukraine at the end of September 2012.

Rating communication in Ukraine in September 2012

Figure 1 - Rating communication in Ukraine in September 2012

On 31 December 2012 the total subscriber base of Ukrainian mobile operators amounted to more than 54.7 million people (an increase of 653,000 compared with November of 2012), and penetration increased to 126%.

3. Study of pricing in the mobile market on the basis of econometric models

Price in a market economy is established in the study vzaimodeistviya supply and demand functions, which are the main components of the pricing model. The intersection of supply and demand are in equilibrium point [1], and corresponding to this point is called the equilibrium price. The analytical form of the function? supply and demand is determined on the basis of empirical data in ways regression analysis. To predict the amount of the domestic mobile phone market at this stage of the econometric model is built based on the Simple Linear and nonlinear regressions.

Supply and demand curves and the equilibrium price

Figure 2 - Supply and demand curves and the equilibrium price

Animation of the proces (animation made using GIF Animator. It consists of 3 frames with intervals between frames 180 ms and 10 cycles of repetition)

Animation 1 - Animation of the process (animation made using GIF Animator. It consists of 3 frames with intervals between frames 180 ms and 10 cycles of repetition)

Based on the analysis of the current state of the market telecommunications identified the following factors [2], affecting the development of the domestic mobile market:
1) GDP and the volume of paid services to the population;
2) investments in fixed assets in the industry;
3) The number of permanent and economically active population;
4) The consumer price index for paid services to the population;
5) income, savings, the density of mobile communication in the regions.

For the selection of these, the most significant factors and to eliminate possible multicollinearity, the procedure step by step inclusion of explanatory variables in the regression model based on the computation of the matrix pair correlation coefficients. A selection criterion used the coefficient of determination. Resulting variable for these models is the amount of communication services - Y, expressed in billions of hryvnia. Let the factor variable is I - the total investment in this sector, as expressed in billions of hryvnia. Since this is a pair of correlation-regression model, the analytical form of the dependence is determined by the dispersion of the cloud, built in Y-axes and I. Using the method of least squares, set the parameters of the proposed linear and nonlinear regression models (Fig. 2). The developed models are important because they have a relatively high coefficient of determination: for it is a linear model for the log.

Regression models depending on the volume of mobile services of the total investment in the sector

Figure 3 - Regression models depending on the volume of mobile services of the total investment in the sector

The proposed model indicates the synchronous, near-linear fact of investment in the industry and the volume of mobile services. Evaluate the influence of the factor N - the number of economically active population, will allow the following regression model: Y = 15,23 x - 768, R ^ 2 = 0.821; Y = 2,4 x ^ 2 - 354x + 12893, R ^ 2 = 0.875. here as a regressor x stands value N. Obviously, both linear and quadratic dependence between the values ??Y and N are significant as evidenced determination coefficient. Similar econometric models are constructed to evaluate the effect of other factors on the growth of total services in the industry. Thus, the developed econometric models of the dynamics of the market communication, produce forward-looking options for the industry and are used, in particular, to estimate the amount of additional services provided to mobile communications.

Conclusion

Analytical review of indicators and the structure of the mobile market in Ukraine over the past three years, 2010-2012. Econometric model developed according to the volume of mobile communication services on the factors that determine the industry demand. A promising line of research is to build a multi-factor model of demand for mobile services. When writing the abstract of this master's work is not yet complete. Final completion: December 2013. Full text on the topic can be obtained from the author or his manager after that date.

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