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Improving the risk management system at the enterprise

Content

Introduction

Risk is inherent in any form of human activity, which is associated with many conditions and factors that influence the positive outcome of decisions made by people. Historical experience shows that the risk of not receiving the intended results is especially manifested in the generalization of commodity-money relations, competition between participants in economic turnover.

The concept of risk has been known for a long time. In the domestic economy, the study of issues of risk theory was to a certain extent in demand only until the end of the 20s of the 20th century. In the future, the role of command and control methods of management was strengthened. All this, combined with the elimination of the market motivation of the economy, led to the denial of the problem of economic and social risk. Individual developments on the issues of production and economic risks could not claim the right to be considered a scientific direction.

The risk can arise in any kind of activity. The risk of not receiving the intended results is especially inherent in the conditions of universality of commodity-money relations, competition of participants in economic turnover.

The main criterion for the effective capacity of a modern enterprise is the management's ability to analyze, predict, carry out prevention, intelligently control and effectively manage risks, while relying on a strictly scientific basis. The risk directly depends on the effectiveness, validity and timeliness of management decisions. The risk can and should be managed, namely, the use of specific measures that will maximally predict the occurrence of a risk event and apply appropriate measures to reduce the degree of risk.

1. Essence, content and types of risks

There is a wide variety of opinions about the concept of definition, essence and nature of risk. This is due to the multidimensionality of this phenomenon, insufficient use in real activities, ignorance in the existing legislation. Consider two concepts that complement each other and cover the general content of risk.

The first definition is that the risk is defined as the likelihood (threat) of the enterprise losing part of its resources, loss of income or the appearance of additional costs as a result of certain production and financial activities. Therefore, risk refers to the possibility of an adverse event occurring, the possibility of failure, the possibility of danger.

The second definition of risk is associated with the concept of "risk situation". A situation is a combination, a combination of various circumstances and conditions that create a certain environment for a particular type of activity. The environment can facilitate or hinder the implementation of this action.

Risk is an action (deed, deed) performed under the conditions of choice (in a situation of choice in the hope of a happy outcome), when in case of failure there is a possibility (degree of danger) to be in a worse position than before the choice (than in the case of failure to take this action ). Risk is more fully defined as an activity associated with overcoming uncertainty in a situation of inevitable choice, in the process of which it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the likelihood of achieving the intended result, failure and deviation from the goal.

From the last definition, one can single out the main elements that will constitute the essence of the concept risk.

  1. Possibility of deviation from the intended goal for the sake of which the chosen alternative was carried out (deviations of both negative and positive properties).
  2. The likelihood of achieving the desired result.
  3. Lack of confidence in achieving the goal.
  4. Possibility of material, moral and other losses associated with the implementation of the alternative chosen in conditions of uncertainty.

Acceptance of a project associated with risk involves identifying and comparing potential losses and revenues. If the risk is not backed by calculations, then it mostly ends in failure and is accompanied by certain losses. To cope with the negative phenomena associated with risk, it is necessary to identify: the main features and sources of its occurrence, its most important types, the permissible level of risk, risk measurement methods, risk reduction methods.

The main features of risk are: inconsistency, alternativeness and uncertainty.

Such a feature as inconsistency in risk leads to a clash of objectively existing risky actions with their subjective assessment.

Alternativeity implies the need to choose from two or more possible options for decisions, directions, actions. If there is no choice, then there is no risky situation, and, consequently, no risk.

Uncertainty is the incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the conditions for the implementation of a project (solution). The existence of risk is directly related to the presence of uncertainty, which is heterogeneous in its form of manifestation and content. Entrepreneurial activity is carried out under the influence of the uncertainty of the external environment (economic, political, social, etc.), many variables, counterparties, persons, whose behavior cannot always be predicted with acceptable accuracy.

The effectiveness of the organization of risk management is largely determined by the classification of risk. Depending on the possible outcome (risk event), risks can be divided into two large groups: pure and speculative.

Net risks mean the possibility of getting a negative or no result. These risks include the following risks: natural, environmental, political, transport and part of commercial risks (property, production, trade).

Speculative risks are expressed in the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results. These risks include financial risks that are part of commercial risks. Depending on the main reason for the occurrence of risks (basic or natural risk), they are divided into the following categories: natural and natural risks, environmental, political, transport, commercial risks.

Natural and natural risks include risks associated with the manifestation of natural forces of nature: earthquake, flood, storm, fire, epidemic, etc.

Environmental risks are risks associated with environmental pollution.

Political risks are associated with the political situation in the country and the activities of the state. Political risks include:

  1. The impossibility of carrying out economic activities due to hostilities, revolution, exacerbation of the internal political situation in the country, nationalization, confiscation of goods and enterprises, the imposition of an embargo, due to the refusal of the new government to fulfill the obligations assumed by its predecessors, etc.;
  2. Introduction of a deferral (moratorium) on external payments for a certain period due to the onset of extraordinary circumstances (strike, war, etc.);
  3. Unfavorable changes in tax legislation;
  4. Prohibition or restriction of conversion of national currency into payment currency. In this case, the obligation to exporters can be fulfilled in the national currency, which has a limited scope.

Transport risks are the risks associated with the transportation of goods by transport: road, sea, river, rail, airplane, etc.

Commercial risks pose a risk of losses in the process of financial and economic activities. They mean uncertainty about the outcome of this business transaction.

On a structural basis, commercial risks are divided into property, production, trade, and financial.

Property risks are risks associated with the likelihood of loss of an entrepreneur's property due to theft, sabotage, negligence, overvoltage of technical and technological systems, etc.

Production risks - risks associated with a loss from stopping production due to the impact of various factors and, above all, with the loss or damage of fixed and circulating assets (equipment, raw materials, transport, etc.), as well as risks associated with the introduction of new technology into production and technology.

Trade risks are risks associated with a loss due to delays in payments, refusal to pay during the transportation of goods, non-delivery of goods, etc.p>

Financial risks are associated with the likelihood of loss of financial resources (i.e. cash).

2. Techniques and methods of risk management

Risk management methods are very diverse. It is quite clear from the current practice that Russian specialists, on the one hand, and Western researchers, on the other, have quite clear preferences in relation to risk management methods. The presence of such preferences is primarily due to the nature of the state's economic development and, as a consequence, the groups of risks under consideration.

However, despite the differences in preferences, it should be borne in mind that the development of economic relations in Russia promotes the introduction of Western experience and, as a consequence, the convergence of Russian and Western approaches to risk management and research.

The means of resolving risks are their avoidance, retention, transfer, reduction of the degree.

Risk avoidance means simply avoiding a risk-related activity.

However, avoiding risk for an investor often means giving up profit.

Risk retention means leaving the risk to the investor, i.e. on his responsibility. Thus, an investor investing venture capital is confident in advance that he can cover a possible loss of venture capital at his own expense.

Risk transfer means that the investor transfers responsibility for the risk to someone else, such as an insurance company.

Various techniques are used to reduce the risk. The most common are:

  1. diversification;
  2. the acquisition of additional information about the selection and results;
  3. limiting;
  4. self-insurance;
  5. insurance.

Diversification is the process of distributing invested funds between various objects of capital investment, which are not directly related to each other, in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income.

Diversification allows you to avoid part of the risk when allocating capital between various activities.

Limiting is setting a limit, i.e. limits on expenses, sales, loans, etc. Limiting is an important technique for reducing the degree of risk and is used by banks when granting loans, when concluding an overdraft agreement, etc. It is used by economic entities when selling goods on credit, granting loans, determining the amount of capital investment, etc.

Self-insurance means that the entrepreneur would rather insure himself than buy insurance from an insurance company. Thus, he saves on capital costs for insurance. Self-insurance is a decentralized form of creation of in-kind and cash insurance (reserve) funds directly in an economic entity, especially in those whose activities are at risk. Self-insurance is logical when the value of the insured property is relatively low compared to the property and financial parameters of the entire business. For example, it is inappropriate for a large corporation to insure its equipment against fire through an insurance company, which is installed in a small rented premises. Self-insurance also makes sense when the probability of loss is extremely low, when the firm owns a large amount of the same type of property. Thus, multinational oil companies, which own several hundred tankers, practice self-insurance. The calculation is very simple and logical: the loss of one tanker per year, which is unlikely, will cost the company less than paying insurance premiums for all tankers.

The essence of insurance is expressed in the fact that the investor is willing to give up part of the income in order to avoid risk, i.e. he is willing to pay to reduce the risk to zero.

When choosing a specific means of risk management, an enterprise should proceed from the following principles:

  1. you cannot risk more than your own capital can afford;
  2. you cannot risk a lot for the sake of little;
  3. the consequences of the risk should be anticipated.

The application of these principles in practice means that it is always necessary to calculate the maximum possible loss for this type of risk, then compare it with the amount of capital of the company exposed to this risk, and then compare the entire possible loss with the total amount of its own financial resources. And only after taking the last step, it is possible to determine whether this risk will lead to the bankruptcy of the enterprise.

The question of choosing the optimal policy aimed at reducing risk is solved within the framework of microeconomic theory. The corresponding result is that the optimal risk management policy should be such that the marginal cost of implementing this policy corresponds to the marginal utility delivered by its application.

However, due to significant information requirements, this principle is difficult to implement in practice. In fact, simpler criteria are applied, for example, the criterion of the minimum cost of measures to reduce the risk to an acceptable level.

In specific cases, the choice of risk mitigation tools depends on the ability to predict it. Thus, well-known, frequently occurring risks can be reduced with the help of specially developed preventive measures. For example, the risk of losing part of an enterprise's assets due to theft can be reduced by installing alarms at warehouses, improving the existing accounting and control system for the storage and use of material values.

Foreseeable but poorly controlled risks can be mitigated by diversifying production and using a back-up system for supplying resources.

Each of the listed risk reduction tools has both certain advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, certain combinations of these risk mitigation tools are usually used.

The final step in the analysis of mitigation tools is the formulation of an overall project risk management plan.

This plan should include: the results of the identification of all risk areas of the project, a list of the main risk identifiers in each area; the results of the rating assessment of risk indicators, reflecting their significance for achieving the goals of the project; results of statistical risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and global risk analysis of project acceptance; Recommended risk mitigation strategies in each area of ??activity related to project implementation; a list of procedures for monitoring the risks of an entrepreneurial project.

3. Enterprise risk management process

The development of the science of risk management is largely viewed from the standpoint of the risks of financial institutions in a relatively stable economic environment. The need to consider the risks of industrial enterprises in unstable political, economic and social conditions requires adjusting the existing principles of risk management and additional justification of the effectiveness of the methods of risk analysis used.

One of the main reasons for ineffective risk management is the lack of clear and precise methodological foundations of this process. Analysis of the principles of risk management cited in the literature shows their fragmentation, and individual attempts to systematize them are characterized by many controversial issues.

Nevertheless, the analysis of research in the field of risk management methodology, taking into account the requirements of the modern economy, makes it possible to form a system of risk management principles:

  1. the decision associated with the risk must be economically literate and must not have a negative impact on the results of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise;
  2. risk management should be carried out within the framework of the corporate strategy of the organization;
  3. when managing risks, decisions made should be based on the required amount of reliable information;
  4. when managing risks, the decisions made should take into account the objective characteristics of the environment in which the company operates;
  5. risk management should be systemic;
  6. risk management should involve the current analysis of the effectiveness of the decisions made and the operational updating of the set of principles and methods of risk management used.

The essence of each stage of risk management involves the use of different methods.

The stage of setting goals for risk management is characterized by the use of methods for analyzing and forecasting the economic situation, identifying the capabilities and needs of the enterprise within the framework of the strategy and current plans for its development.

At the stage of risk analysis, methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis are used: methods of collecting existing and new information, modeling the activities of an enterprise, statistical and probabilistic methods, etc.

At the third stage, a comparison of the effectiveness of various methods of influencing risk is made: risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk taking on oneself, transfer of part or all of the risk to third parties, which ends with the development of a decision on the choice of their optimal set.

The result of the analysis of the effectiveness of the decisions made and the revision of risk management objectives should be new knowledge about risk, which, if necessary, will make it possible to correct the previously set risk management objectives.

Thus, at each stage, different risk management methods are used. The results of each stage become the initial data for subsequent stages, forming a decision-making system with feedback. Such a system ensures the most effective achievement of goals, since the knowledge gained at each of the stages allows adjusting not only the methods of influencing the risk, but also the goals of risk management themselves.

The basic stage that allows you to form a further risk management strategy is the stage of risk analysis.

The task of a qualitative risk analysis is to identify the sources and causes of risk, stages and works, during the performance of which there is a risk, that is:

  1. identification of potential risk areas;
  2. identification of risks associated with the activities of the enterprise;
  3. forecasting the practical benefits and possible negative consequences of the revealed risks.

Qualitative analysis methods can be divided into four groups:

  1. Methods based on the analysis of available information;
  2. Methods for collecting new information;
  3. Methods for modeling the activities of the organization;
  4. Heuristic methods of qualitative analysis.

The final results of the qualitative risk analysis, in turn, serve as input for the quantitative analysis.

At the stage of quantitative risk analysis, numerical values ??of the probability of occurrence of risk events and the amount of damage or benefit caused by them are calculated.

Considering the entire set of methods for quantitative risk analysis, we can say that the application of a particular method depends on many factors:

  1. each type of analyzed risk has its own methods of analysis and specific features of their implementation. For example, in the analysis of technical and production risks associated with equipment failure, the most common methods of building trees;
  2. for the analysis of risks, the volume and quality of the initial data plays a significant role. So, if there is a significant database on the dynamics of ROF, it is possible to use methods of simulation and neural networks. Otherwise, most likely the use of expert methods or methods of fuzzy logic;
  3. when analyzing risks, it is fundamentally important to take into account the dynamics of indicators affecting the level of risk. In the case of risk analysis in markets in shock, a number of methods are simply not applicable;
  4. when choosing methods of analysis, one should take into account not only the depth of the calculated data, but also the forecast horizon of indicators that affect the level of risk;
  5. the urgency and technical capabilities of the analysis are of great importance. If the analyst has a solid computational potential and a margin of time at his disposal, it is possible to train neural networks, simulate Monte Carlo, etc .;
  6. the effectiveness of the application of risk analysis methods increases with the formalization of risk for the purpose of mathematical modeling of its impact on the results of the enterprise. Currently, not only economic systems, but also industrial complexes have reached such complexity that often the calculation of their stability is impossible without elements of the theory of probability.

All of the above allows us to conclude that for an effective analysis of the entire variety of risks in the activities of an enterprise, it is necessary to apply a whole range of methods, which, in turn, confirms the relevance of developing a comprehensive risk management mechanism.

In modern economic conditions, characterized by political, economic and social instability, the existing management system at the enterprise should include a risk management mechanism.

The first stage in the formation of a risk management mechanism at an enterprise is the creation of a risk management service. At the current stage of development of the Russian economy, the purpose of this service is to minimize losses by monitoring the activities of the enterprise, analyzing the entire complex of ROF, developing recommendations for reducing risks and monitoring their implementation. At the same time, it is important to determine the place of service in the organizational structure of the enterprise, to determine the rights and obligations of its personnel and to inform the employees of the enterprise about the functions of the service and the nature of its activities.

Socio-economic instability (SES), in the conditions of which enterprises operate, makes its own adjustments, both in the activities of business entities and in the mechanism of enterprise risk management. At the same time, it is practically impossible to trace its impact in full, but it is quite possible to determine the aspects of its impact on individual risks.

Upon completion of the collection of information intended for risk analysis, the risk management service will be able to realistically assess the dynamics of the company's performance indicators, taking into account the impact of external and internal socio-economic and political factors, which will make it possible to comprehensively and professionally predict the future state of the market situation and realistically assess possible risks.

The logical continuation of the work of the risk management service should be the formation of a program of measures for risk management, in the development of which the following should be taken into account:

  1. the amount of possible damage and its probability;
  2. existing risk reduction mechanisms offered by the state and their production and economic efficiency;
  3. production and economic efficiency of the measures proposed by the service to reduce risks;
  4. the practical possibility of implementing activities within the allocated limit of funds;
  5. compliance of the program activities with the existing regulations, the goals of long-term and short-term planning of the enterprise development and the main directions of its financial policy;
  6. subjective attitude to the risk of program developers and enterprise management.

When developing a program of measures for risk management, specialists of the risk management service should focus on the maximum unification of the formed risk level assessments, which is expressed in the formation of universal parameters characterizing the amount of possible damage. As such parameters, it is most advisable to use the impact of risks on financial flows and the financial condition of the enterprise.

The final stage in the development of the program is the formation of a set of measures to reduce risks, indicating the planned effect of their implementation, timing of implementation, sources of funding and persons responsible for the implementation of this program. The program must necessarily be approved by the management of the enterprise and taken into account in financial and production planning.

In the process of implementing the program, the specialists of the risk management service should analyze the effectiveness of the decisions made and, as necessary, ensure that the goals and means of minimizing risks are adjusted. At the same time, it is recommended to accumulate all information about errors and shortcomings in the development of the program that appeared during its implementation. This approach will allow for the development of subsequent risk mitigation programs at a higher quality level using the new knowledge about risk.

Conclusion

The versatility of the concept of risk is due to a variety of factors that characterize both the features of a particular type of activity and the specific features of the uncertainty in which this activity is carried out. It is rather difficult to identify all risk-forming factors. First, most of the risks have both general and specific factors. Secondly, a specific risk may have different causes depending on the type of activity of a commercial organization.

The theoretical material presented in this work allows us to conclude that the mechanism of enterprise risk management in modern economic conditions should have a clear hierarchical structure with the need to adjust it following the results of the implementation of the program of measures to reduce risks and taking into account changing impact factors.

The work investigated the essence, content and types of risks, considered the theoretical foundations of risk management at the enterprise and the mechanism of enterprise risk management in modern economic conditions.

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