There is overvalue to the system of safety after the Chernobyl' catastrophe. It became obvious, that for development of theory of safety perfection of the system of estimation and prognostication of extraordinary situations is required. At the same time, for making effective administrative decisions quantitative information is needed about the levels of dangers and threats and their dependence on different factors. For the receipt of such information the special tool is required: methods, models, methods, algorithms.

       In a national lecture about consisting of techno and natural safety of Ukraine in 2006 basic directions of improvement of the system of defense of population from the extraordinary situations of techno and natural character were formulated in 2007.

       In the field of prevention of origin of extraordinary situations (ES) to the proper directions, the followings are delivered:

· Lighting the state of problems of techno and natural safety and defense of population from extraordinary situations in mass of all kinds and levels medias, including with the use of network the Internet;

· Creation of register of dangerous objects, improvement of methodology of estimation of risk and harm from techno and natural ES;

· Improvement of the informative providing in the field of civil defense by introduction of modern technologies, foremost Governmental informative-analytical system on questions of extraordinary situations;

· Increase of efficiency of the systems of collection, treatments and leading to of operative information about extraordinary situations to the interested part of population on the basis of modern technologies of information and other.

       For the decision of these questions a presence is required there is the enough powerful system of analysis of CHS, including the complex of the modules of calculations.

Exactly on the above-mentioned reasons, theme of master's degree work “Development of the informative-analytical system of estimation and prognostication of extraordinary situations at territorial level by modern facilities of programming” is actual.

AIMS AND TASKS OF WORK

       A research object is extraordinary situations of natural and techno character in Ukraine, their dynamics and consequences of their realization.

       A purpose of work is development of the informative-analytical system of estimation and prognostication of extraordinary situations at territorial level, to the efficiency of the systems of collection, treatment and leading to of operative information intended for an increase about extraordinary situations to the interested part of population on the basis of modern technologies of information.

       Methods of researches are systematization, generalization and statistical analysis of data about extraordinary situations; mathematical, object-oriented and imitation design; analysis of structure and methods of development of databases.

       Settings of the system. The purpose of development of the informative-analytical system of estimation of extraordinary situations at territorial level is an increase of efficiency of the systems of collection, treatments and leading to of operative information about extraordinary situations to the interested part of population on the basis of modern technologies of information.

       Tasks of the system of estimation of extraordinary situations:

· Conduct of base of these quantitative indexes of extraordinary situations (amount of arising up CHS, amount of lost, amount of victims and etc);

· Prognostication of extraordinary situations of different kinds and levels;

· Calculation and analysis of consequences of undesirable events;

· Conclusion of graphic information about CHS (amount of CHS for a month, for a quarter, for a year, on the different areas of Ukraine);

· Grant information about methods, lying down at of prognostication and calculation of consequences, and Laws of Ukraine, which regulate attributing of extraordinary situation to one or another kind.

SUPPOSED SCIENTIFIC NOVELTY

       In work was used information from site of Ministry on questions of extraordinary situations for period from 2000 to 2006. Among information, presented on a site, the special attention is deserved by monthly and quarterlies information about the origin of ES. However presented information is separately, there is no data in separate periods of time, which entails vagueness and difficulties at the analysis of extraordinary situations. This information requires systematization, which served basis for development of database about CHS, which functioning of the system of estimation of extraordinary situations is based on.

       The statistical analysis of data is also done, conformities to the law of origin are exposed and models are built for prognostication of extraordinary situations of one or another kind (on this stage works are models of motor-car failures and fires).

       The flow diagram of the informative-analytical system of estimation and prognostication of extraordinary situations is presented on a picture 1.

Fig. 1. Flow diagram of the informative-analytical system of analysis of CHS at territorial level

       Functions, realized the system:

· Conduct of base of these quantitative indexes of extraordinary situations (amount of arising up extraordinary situations, amount of lost, amount of victims and etc);

· Prognostication of extraordinary situations of different kinds;

· Calculation and analysis of consequences of undesirable events;

· Conclusion of graphic information about extraordinary situations (amount for a month, for a quarter, for a year, on the different areas of Ukraine);

· Grant information about methods, lying in basis of prognostication and calculation of consequences, and Laws of Ukraine, which regulate attributing of extraordinary situation to one or another kind.

       Rapid progress of technologies in the world and simultaneous degradation of economy and social institutes force constantly engaged in monitoring, flexibly to change a policy in accordance with changing realities. The created system will be opened for a free visit, that will decide the problem of lighting the state of problems of safety and defense of population from extraordinary situations and leading to of this information to the interested groups of population.

Links

1. Національна доповідь про стан техногенної та природної безпеки в Україні у 2005 році – http://www.mns.gov.ua/annual_report/2006/8.pdf (28.04.2007).

2. Офіційний сайт МНС України // http://www.mns.gov.ua (19.04.2007).

3. Радаев Н.Н. Риски в ЧС природного и техногенного характера // Управление риском. – 2002. – №2. С. 24 – 31.

4. http://www.aeroreview.ru/?/pages/ma/ma_200504_040042/ma_200504_040042.htm – Л.Н.Александровская, "Методологические основы расчета и нормирования рисков в задачах обеспечения безопасности", журнал "Мир Авионики", 2005.04, стр. 40-42. (20.05.2007).

5. http://www.obzh.ru/pre – Электронное учебное пособие "Предупреждение и ликвидация чрезвычайных ситуаций"(20.05.2007).

This work is in the stage of development; completion of the work is planned on December 2007. The performances of work can be got from an author after the specified term.