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Abstract
1. Introduction. A urgency masters works.
Now to dynamically developing branches it is possible to relate confectionery branch. It is connected to development of new means and the newest technological processes which considerably recently began be used by the confectionery companies of Ukraine. One of such dynamically developing companies is confectionery company "KONTI".
All set of dynamic and static processes of manufacture cannot be presented without difficult economic-mathematical processes.
The major purpose of each company is increase of demand for production. The set of various approaches, methods of the analysis is applied to achievement of the given purpose, program and means.
The operative forecast allows precisely, effectively and to analyse at any moment the necessary information on demand for production. Also at more global level, the information can be processed and presented as the summary consolidated reports in a section of kinds of production, etc.
The urgency of perfection of methods and models of forecasting of demand is caused by necessity to take into account cyclicity of economic processes. The traditional methodology of forecasting of demand was based on a hypothesis of uniform development that assumed use of linear or sedate extrapolation of tendencies developed in the basic period. Such approach does not take into account distinctions in brief-, Average-and long-term dynamics of demand that does not allow to describe adequately non-uniform dynamics and complicates forecasting demand in conditions of high rates of inflation, significant tactical and seasonal fluctuations, and also at various stages of business cycles. The device of forecasting of demand thus is guided by use korrelation-regression and optimization models, and also on calculations on production functions. However to realize a task of adequate display in models of processes of formation of demand in conditions of non-uniform dynamics it is obviously possible on the basis of logistical multifactorial models and the device of the theory of accidents.
2. The review of existing researches.
Demand mirrors requirements of a society and adds of industrial and personal consumption. Thus industrial consumption, for example power resources, raw material, the equipment, is the act of production, that practically means identity of production and consumption. Personal consumption appears as satisfaction of requirements of people and can not coincide with size of made consumer goods. Definition of the value of demand enters into tasks of contributors of the market which should define, what quantity of the goods can be implemented in such time span.
Demand can be studied and predicted at various levels of a clustering depending on a task in view. Thus it is necessary to select carefully the factors rendering the greatest effect on essence of the phenomenon.
From the point of view of the methodology learning of main trends of change of demand and his simulation on a perspective should be carried out in view of the system of factors of two types (a figure 1):
1. Defining a quantity demand for each of levels of an outline: a national economy - branch - firm;
2. Taking into account specificity of an observed stage of evolution of economy (period of becoming of market ratioes for the Ukrainian conditions).
Thus on mezolevel and a microlevel the essential factor is territorial, defining uniformity of demand for products and a quality of product.
In the given operation tasks of simulation of demand on mezolevel and microlevels are researched in view of groups of factors appropriate to these levels among which it is observed also regional.
In the methodical plan at forecasting demand for considered sector of economy the following approaches can be applied:
- Traditional (genetic) - the retrospective analysis of actual number of applications for production and revealing by heuristic way of the basic tendencies determining their future quantity. As has shown experience of his wide application in conditions of the command system, the given approach is inefficient; especially it is unacceptable in conditions of fast change of an environment of functioning of economic objects, characteristic for modern Ukrainian conditions;
- Classical - forecasting of demand in view of the limited number of prepotent factors (it is usual - incomes and the prices); it is submitted by proceedings of many known economists engaging in theoretical problems of demand on boundary XIX-XX of centuries. The basic questions which are taking place in the center of their attention - the analysis of behaviour of the consumer, research of the factors influencing demand, in particular, studying of a parity of categories of demand, the offer, the price and incomes.
- Modified - adaptation of the classical approach to modern difficult process of formation of demand for production. This approach is based on new concepts of formation of demand according to which his effective forecasting is impossible without taking into account the whole complex of the interconnected factors determined both specificity of branch manufacture, and by features of realization and production in modern transitional conditions.
The given approach is based that in modern economic realities many hypotheses accepted by the classical theory of demand, not always are precisely observed, and more often by that or a different way are transformed.
It is caused by that the behaviour of the modern consumer of the goods has essentially changed. To the greatest degree a deviation of economic realities from the classical approach typically for a transitional economy and, in particular, for the Ukrainian conditions. We shall consider situations at which there are specified discrepancies:
1) An excessive demand formed in conditions of a hyperinflation. Here the factor of depreciation of money becomes prevailing in comparison with factors of incomes and the prices, the behaviour of the consumer becomes substantially "irrational", function of utility is transformed and has no limits of saturation.
2) Two-currency monetary system (alongside with depreciated national currency the firm foreign currency is in use). In these cases demand for production is deformed by demand for the special goods - currency, there are problems tezavration incomes and a pent-up demand.
3) The raised demand for special group of production, subject to smaller influence of inflation and providing more stable position of the consumer on a commodity market in conditions of significant uncertainty and small predictability of a conjuncture. The real estate, automobiles, durable subjects, products concern to number of such goods from precious metals, etc. Appeal of the given kind of the goods will consist not so much in their consumer properties, how many in their liquidity. Their value for the buyer will consist in their ability quickly enough to be transformed in a cash with not too big risk of loss of the enclosed capital (and in some cases and with increase of the enclosed means).
4) Change of system of preferences in satisfaction of traditional kinds of requirement (purchase of production of import manufacture - home appliances, clothes, food stuffs). In particular, during consumption the role of a category of quality has considerably increased. Thus it became very capacious concept coordinated to more general and integrated concept of quality of life. The given phenomenon is swept especially up in conditions of the Ukrainian transitive economy. After the long period of actual neglect to the importance of this category in conditions of command system the public mentality has changed, that, in particular, is reflected in advertising phrases of type: “ Quality under the reasonable price ”, “ the High prices are justified by unsurpassed quality ”, etc.
Substantially specified transitional features deform a situation on a commodity market. To number of the factors supplementing process of deformation, concern also depreciation of the factor of work at high inflation of costs in this sphere, significant currency accumulation of the population, aspiring to soften inflationary losses, etc.
As a whole the market of manufacture of confectionery products appeared very strongly differentiated not only on a spectrum of let out production, but also on their quality and the price that is caused by public differentiation of incomes. Quality of production is defined not only technology requirements to observance of compoundings of corresponding considered operation of preparation but also quality of used materials of a label, the quality symbol of production, convenience and information boxes, regional characteristics, etc. All this (usually united by the general concept of a degree of quality) does not give in to exact ranking or strict quantitative definition of quality of production. It more likely "virtual", instead of exact concept which is used by informal image during decision-making: the consumer (concerning to this or that profitable group) carries out a choice not only on the basis of the price (as in a classical case), but also in view of a difficult parity"price - quality". Essential influence on a kind of function of demand in sphere of manufacture is rendered also with branch specificity.
Set of the listed above factors is bound by difficult image that does impossible forecasting of demand for a basis concerning simple dependences of the classical approach.
It means, that for each concrete case it is necessary to find the functions of the demand most adequately reflecting the arisen situation and, in particular, including as argument that set of factors which in the greater degree influences demand of considered production.
Considering a set of the factors used in functions of demand, in most cases such determinants are the price and incomes, and influence other (not monetary, not price factors) is taken into account by a constant. Such approach in some cases yields rather good results, but under certain conditions significant weight factors can become and other parameters the neglect with which substantially can affect adequacy of the forecast.
Now the tendency of the analysis and the account of other groups of the parameters influencing demand that is usually displayed by corresponding shift of a curve of demand concerning axes of coordinates amplifies. In table 1 two groups of such factors which reflect influence on considered confectionery production are submitted:
- Qualitative characteristics of production (I);
- Conditions of an environment (II).
Thus, realization of the modified approach assumes application of special statistical methods of processing of results of supervision not only over incomes and the prices, on the one hand, and charges - with another, but also revealing of other prepotent factors influencing qualitative characteristics of the goods and on his demand. Thus such analysis should be carried out for representative sample on various social and economic groups which essentially differ with priorities of consumer behaviour.
In some cases necessary there is a construction enough difficult systems of the parities describing change of demand in the considered concrete situation. In particular it is fair for actively developing manufactures such as the confectionery enterprises and the companies in which transformation processes appeared significant, and influence of qualitative characteristics on demand appreciable.
Table 1. Monetary factors of change of demand for confectionery production.
| Kind | The Name of the factor | Character of influence on size of demand
(> — increase, < — reduction) | Comments |
| I | Growth of consumer preferences | > | Change of tastes, fashions, etc. |
| Growth of consumer properties (utility) of given production | > | а)Growth of objective utility (quality, the maintenance of useful substances)
б) Growth of subjective utility (see item 1) |
| Growth of a rating, formation of a brand, increase of prestige of the country - manufacturer | > | With other things being equal production of the maximum category are in great demand. |
| Conformity of seasonal prevalence | > | Demand for seasonal production is higher. |
| II | Expectation of change of the prices:
а)Increase
б)Decrease | >
< | а)an excessive demand
б)A pent-up demand |
The Parity of a price index and the depositary rate of interest:
а)The price index is higher
б)The price index is lower | >
< | а)the inflation which is not compensated by contributions, causes outflow of savings and increase of demand
б)The inflation compensated by contributions, increases savings |
Expectation of change of incomes:
а)increase
б)decrease | <
> | а)a pent-up demand
б)purchase for the future |
3. Prospective scientific novelty.
In the given work it is planned to design model of forecasting of demand for confectionery products in view of factors which vary at three levels a macrolevel, mezolevel and a microlevel.
The major direction of perfection of forecasting of a consumer demand is change of his priorities. The considered methodology of forecasting should promote social reorientation of economy that assumes refusal of prevalence of the texnocratic and natural approach in forecasting researches of demand.
The given subsystem of forecasting of demand to the greatest degree should correspond to adequate parameters under dynamically changing industrial and economic conditions of the enterprise.
4. The theoretical analysis.
4.1. Definition of prepotent factors of demand.
Problem of the given subitem is revealing factors of the demand dominating in the market of confectionery production. Thus, from set of the factors determining demand for confectionery production and considered earlier, it is necessary to choose the most significant.
The analysis of the market of confectionery products testifies that forecasting of demand for production of this branch is very much a challenge. Demand can be measured as in natural and conditional - natural parameters (number of applications for separate kinds of production and sale from concrete shops), and in cost expression (general profit on sales).
The level of demand on confectionery production depends on many factors both objective, and subjective character. To number of the major factors rendering direct influence on size of demand, it is necessary to attribute the following:
- Consumption of confectionery production. Total and structural characteristics - distribution by kinds and brands, size of annual and general consumption;
- A level of the organization of sales - quantity of shops (ТТ) and others ТТ similar branch, their production potentialities, kinds and types of let out production; a holding time of the client on ТТ, convenience of accommodation of network ТТ; reserve stocks of production in warehouses, an average level of quality of production, and also a number of economic parameters - the prices for production, security resources, etc.
- A complex of social conditions - the demographic characteristic of the population, structure of employment with differentiation on levels of incomes, observance of ecological requirements to accommodation of the enterprises and ТТ confectionery production, etc.
4.2. A general characteristic of system of models of forecasting of demand.
In connection with complexity problems of forecasting of demand for confectionery production in work the modified approach as the most adequate to an available situation and the supposing account of complex influence of all set of the prepotent factors determining demand is used. Such approach to forecasting demand can be realized on the basis of the interconnected model which covers some subset of considered factors. The conceptual circuit of construction of such model for confectionery branch is reflected in figure 2.
4.3. Imitating model of forecasting of demand.
By development of imitating model we shall start with the following hypotheses.
Function of demand for considered branch is difficult multifactorial dependence. To number of its arguments (except for already mentioned prices for production and incomes of the population) we shall carry the following major factors:
1) Consumption of confectionery production
It is obvious, that the more size of this factor, the it is more sales volumes and the above demand for confectionery production.
2) Quality and specific structure of confectionery production
Dependence of demand on this factor also is obvious enough: the above the degree of quality and is wider a spectrum of confectionery production, the above demand for production of this manufacturer.
The separate factors influencing demand, are interdependent sizes that renders strengthening influence on dynamics of demand.
The system of interrelations of the listed factors can be submitted by the circuit in figure 3. Two factors on this circuit form the closed cycle of interrelations. It is a degree of quality of production and incomes of consumers.
The degree of quality of production renders double influence. First, directly influences sales volumes in the current period. Second, creates base for expansion of a network of sales in the future. The last is caused by that high quality of production with other things being equal stimulates eventually (with the certain interval of the delay, determined time of decision-making and the period of accumulation of savings) increase in quantity brand production and increase of the subjective factor of consumers.
The population more and more willingly gets not only brand confectionery production under more expensive prices, but also cheaper, having a sufficient utility level and flavouring qualities.
Long time in conditions of development of the Ukrainian economy, after purchase of the status of independence by her, was possible was to observe extremely poor quality of confectionery production which one of the factors constraining growth of consumption of confectionery production. Slow rates of updating of industrial lines of new generation and introduction of technological processes, in turn, caused increase of the prices for confectionery production. Insignificant automation resulted in increase in the prices, however incomplete automation of all processes, did not give an opportunity completely to supervise quality of production, thus production was made low quality, and the cost price considerably raised a rise in prices.
The increase in capacities of confectionery branch, development of a network of shops, interaction with distributors and improvement of quality of production in conditions of competitive struggle for the client now has essentially raised quality of manufacture of confectionery products.
The following central factor of considered system figure 3. - incomes of consumers - also renders dominating effect on change of demand. Incomes of the consumer to the greatest degree influence demand of confectionery production, therefore this factor it is possible to attribute to number of the most significant.
Let's notice, that the concept of a degree of quality is complex and is defined not only intensity of work of confectionery branch as a whole, but also a number of other factors, in particular territorial accommodation of capacities of this branch.
To the following group of the factors essentially determining demand for confectionery production, capacities of domestic confectionery manufacture, export and import of production concern. Action of these factors depends on a developed price level and incomes. One of the indicators describing a parity of a supply and demand and reflecting market conditions, the parameter of availability of the goods (in this case - a confectionery product) for the consumer is. This parameter pays off as the attitude of incomes of the population (usually for a year) to average expenses for confectionery production and is differentiated on groups of consumers and kinds of production. The above this parameter - especially accessible is a considered kind of the goods and the more probability of his sale to the consumer of the given group.
3 system considered in figure allows to carry out forecasting of demand for confectionery production on the basis of the complex approach which is taking into account all spectrum of major factors and their interrelations, determining demand.
The given approach can be formalized with the help of parities of three types:
- dynamics of consumption of confectionery production;
- dynamics of quality and specific structure of confectionery production;
- the general function of demand for confectionery production.
In the general form the model of forecasting of demand for confectionery production of branch can be submitted as follows:
Model of forecasting of demand for confectionery production:
Na(t)=f1[Na(t-1),M(t),E(t),I(t),Ku(t-τ),C(t),d(t),S(t)] (1)
Hi(t)=f2[Hi(t-1),Ku(t-τ),S(t)]
Ku(t)=f3[Ku(t-1),Na(t),Hi(t),Ws(t)]
D(t)=f4[Ku(t),Hi(t),Na(t),Wu(t)]
Here the following designations are used:
t - the period of modelling (year, quarter or other time interval, t=1.. T, T - horizon of forecasting);
Na(t) - quantity of confectionery production in the consumer market in the period t;
M(t) - total capacity of confectionery branch in the period t;
E(t) - export of confectionery production to the period t;
I(t) - import of confectionery production the period t;
Ku(t) - an average level of quality of production and the period t;
τ - a time interval on decision-making in the market of confectionery products;
i – an index of a kind of confectionery production;
K – number of profitable groups of the population;
k – an index of profitable group of the population k = 1.. K;
C(t) - a vector of the prices for confectionery production in the period t, t=1.. m;
m – number of kinds of confectionery production;
d(t) - a vector of incomes on groups of the population in the period t;
Hi(t) - a vector of specific structure of confectionery products in the period t;
D(t) - demand for confectionery production in the period t;
S(t) - function of seasonal prevalence in the period t;
Ws(t) - other factors of dynamics of quality in the period t;
Wu(t) - a level of the organization of sales in the period t;
The model of forecasting of demand concerns to a class of dynamic imitating models. Setting parameters M(t),E(t),I(t),C(t),d(t), and also initial conditions Na(t),Ku(t-τ),S(0),Hi(0) пon model pay off parameters of number of confectionery production in the consumer market, his specific structure Hi(t) and quality Ku production, and also demand for confectionery production D(t).
The system of attitudes (1) describes the aggregated demand for confectionery production in cost expression. Demand for separate kinds of confectionery production (a sweet, cookies, chocolate, a dessert, etc.) can be similarly described
At a choice of a kind of dependences of functions it is necessary to take into account various reaction of demand to the prices and incomes for different kinds of production as confectionery production substantially is highly elastic under the price. Abnormal elasticity (positive elasticity Giffena) is not characteristic for the market of confectionery production though on separate kinds of production under influence of various factors the excessive demand which usually happens short-term (for example can be observed, at sharp increase of the prices sugar raises demand for sweets, for example karamel).
Considered model (1) testifies to importance of a category of quality of production in formation of demand of consumers: the factor of degree of quality Ku(t) is a variable which is included in each parities of this model.
5. Planned results and prospects.
The analysis of the modern Ukrainian market of confectionery production, allows to draw a conclusion on necessity of application for forecasting demand of the modified approach supposing the account of the whole complex of interconnected factors, forming demand. Developing the given scientific position, it is possible to design more exact model of forecasting in view of the greater number of factors, and also to develop own concept of forecasting of demand in confectionery branch, to develop new methods its realizing.
The offered model of forecasting of demand for confectionery production is multifactorial dynamic model and contains straight lines and feedback between variables. Except for factors of the prices and incomes of the population in it such significant factors as seasonal prevalence and quality of production are taken into account also.
By development of the given subsystem it is planned to design maximum precisely dynamic model of forecasting with a plenty of parameters of factors realizing influence, on the basis of model to realize the software with set of functions of construction of forecasts, reflection results as every possible graphic and tabulared representations.
6. The list of the literature.
1. "Methods of forecasting in conditions of the market" E.E.Tihonov's manual. Nevinnomyssk 2006г.
2. Magazine "Audit and the financial analysis" № 3' 2001.
3. Demand: the analysis and management. Ilyenkova N.D. М., the Finance and statistics, 2000.
4. Application of models and methods of forecasting of demand for production of sphere of services. Egorova N.E., Mudunov Ampere-second-М., CEME the Russian Academy of Science, 2000.
6. http://www.cfin.ru <- Corporate management (publications)
7. Allen R.Matematicheskaja economy. M.: Publishing house, 1963.
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