Contents

1. Topicality the work

2. Aims and objectives

3. Main content of master's work

References

Topicality the work

Address contemporary problems of stabilization of the national economy, achieving high rates of sustainable economic growth, social development requires the improvement of the governance process. This process is realized through management decisions that determine the performance and individual enterprise. Ensuring the quality of managerial decisions is a complex issue that depends on many factors. In these circumstances, urgent issue for the creation of such a decision support system that allows timely identification of the state of the control system even with limited information, and indirect signs of emerging trends in crisis, and create a basis for predicting the possible consequences. These tasks are in the process of diagnosis of the financial condition of the company as part of crisis management.

Active development of diagnostics as a separate line acquired only recently, so the number of scientific publications devoted to this problem is negligible. The improvement of methods of analysis and diagnosis in the management of an enterprise devoted attention to the writings of such domestic and foreign scholars as: I. Blank, T. Berdnikov, A. Vartanov B. Gerasimchuk, A. Grad, P. Egorov, V. Zabrodsky, M . Kizim, E. Korotkov, Y. Lysenko, B. Litvak, A. Ants, A. Oleksyuk, A. Orlov, G. Savitskaya, I. Savchuk, Sokolovsky, A. Stoyanova, I. Farion, N. Chumachenko, G. Shvidanenko, A. Sheremet, and others as part of crisis management issues diagnostic attention was paid to foreign authors, among them E. Altman, Igor Ansoff, K . Beerman, W. Beaver, T. Peters, T. Taffler and others, as well as those of scientists from Russia and other CIS countries as V. Arnold, I. Balabanov, Belyaev, A. Bogdanov, L. Blyakhman, G. Ivanov, T. Klebanov, V. Koshkin, Kryzhanovskii, B. Cousin, E. Minaev, V. Ponomarenko, E. Utkin, etc. However, foreign authors did not examine the features of crisis management in the enterprise in a transition economy, and most authors former Soviet Union consider the peculiarities of the enterprises only upon the occurrence of the crisis and leaving the neuj not while considering preventive component of crisis management. In this context, among the works of foreign authors distinguished research P. Belenky, E. Boyko, N. Bryukhovetskiy, I. Buleeva, L. Ligonenko, A. Matviychuk, M. Pashuto, L. Sitnik, A. Tereshchenko, V. Turnikova, H . Tyurina, IA Farion, L. Fedulova, A. Cherniavsky, etc.

However, experience shows that so far there is no perfect methodology and universal techniques of economic and management tools that would allow managers to diagnose, evaluate and implement anti–crisis stabilization of the current situation and predict possible future impacts of the company. Particularly acute unresolved methodological issues to identify signs of crisis, potential crisis tendencies of the enterprise crisis management and its financial condition and business operations.

The foregoing resulted in the direction of scientific research on the definition of teaching the basics, as well as the development tools and management of diagnosis and assessment of business entities.

Aims and objectives

The purpose of the master's work is the theoretical rationale and solution of complex tasks, methods and practical use of recommendations for diagnosis of crisis situations in the business.

According to the purpose of master's work has identified the following objectives:
• Determination of the causes and nature of crises in enterprises;
• Classification of the crisis in the enterprise;
• determine the nature of diagnosis of crises;
• Review and analysis of diagnostic techniques of crisis situations;
• Develop rapid diagnostics crisis state enterprises;
• reveal the content of techniques for constructing statistical models;
• Defining characteristics of the practical use of statistical models for diagnosis of crises enterprise;
• Building a statistical model for the coal mines of Ukraine.

The object of the work is the crisis situation of enterprises.

The subject of the work is a method of diagnosis of crisis firms

The research methodology includes research and development of domestic and foreign scholars on the status of crisis situations, the models predict crises.

To achieve the objectives will be used by scientific methods of research, in particular: the method of system analysis, a method of economic and statistical analysis, the comparison method, a method of forecasting, economic–mathematical modeling and the method of discriminant analysis.

Scientific value of the master's work is theoretical justification and solving complex problems of organization, methods and practical use of recommendations for the diagnosis of crisis situations in the workplace. The practical significance of the work consists in improving the status of the financial condition of the company. The research results can be used in the diagnosis and decision-making regarding the financial condition of the company. The implementation of practical developments and current recommendations of enterprises will increase the scientific basis for management decisions related to crisis management, to make changes to the methodology of diagnosis of the financial condition of the company.

Main content of master's work

In the first chapter "Theoretical bases of diagnosis of crisis situations" discovered and classified causes of the crisis, analyze the genesis of the problem in the works of foreign and domestic economists refined theoretical propositions about the nature of diagnosis of crisis.

During the operation (of life), the company is changing its qualitative and quantitative characteristics that we can consider it as a process of serial passage of the five phases of development (evolution), each of which ends with the revolutionary crisis (Pic. 1):
• of the raising, which is characterized by the growth of quantitative and qualitative improvement of signs of the operation of the enterprise; violation of the equilibrium state at this stage leads to transition the company to a new equilibrium state with higher quality settings, or is short-term and does not affect "the parameters of vital activity of the enterprise;
• stage of development stagnation — for it is characterized by relative stability of quantitative and qualitative performance indicators, as a rule, the company maintains a state of equilibrium has been achieved, or provide minor and recovery collisionless oscillations in his field;
• stage of the crisis — it is a manifestation of the reduction of quantitative and qualitative deterioration of the signs of operation of the business, lead to the violation first "performance-indicators viability, and then gradually" parameters viability "of the enterprise as a micro system, this leads to disruption of the equilibrium state, which the company can not recover on their own;
• stage of recovery — it is a manifestation of slow-downs and gradual increase in the performance of the enterprise is considered as a first step in overcoming the crisis and exit from the crisis.

Pic. 1 - The cycle of business development

Overcoming the crisis provides an opportunity to continue the vital activity of the enterprise, to ensure its revival at the same or higher level of organization and efficiency. Violation of cycling (absenteeism from the crisis) leads to the cessation of his activities as a business entity.

Thus, our study will summarize the different approaches to determining the causes and nature of crises in the enterprise, we can conclude that - Crisis is an integral part of enterprise development, because of their cycle, thus, to reduce the negative impact to crisis management. To increase the effectiveness of crisis management, crisis situations have been classified. Was also highlighted the main instrument of crisis management - diagnosis of the state enterprises in the study of the essence of which was allocated to its complexity, which is discussed in the next section. Qualitative diagnosis creates the necessary analytical basis for the formation of anti-crisis program enterprise, defining the list of rational anti-crisis measures, and hence is the key to a successful solution of problems in the localization and overcome the crisis. [7]

Second chapter "The process of diagnosis of Crisis" was considered the method of testing crisis, which resulted in the diagnosis process has been divided into several stages:

Pic. 2 — To diagnose the financial condition of the company.

(Animation: Volume — 151 KB; size — 325x275, number of frames — 8, the delay between shots — 100 ms, the number of cycles of repetition — 7).

The first is a collection of necessary information for the diagnosis — "Balance" and "Report on financial results". In the second phase, carried out rapid diagnosis, which includes the following areas: liquidity, stability, economic activity, profitability [1]. Each of these aspects is characterized by a specific set of indicators to assess the state of the enterprise.

Thus, rapid diagnosis allows us to analyze the state of the enterprise, using scarce resources and on the basis of a small amount of data about the enterprise. If the problem was detected, go to the next stage of diagnostics — forecasting the financial condition of the company.

Predicting the crisis state of the enterprise is to use statistical models to predict bankruptcy. But used a statistical model must meet the scope. Building a model to estimate the object of work is considered in the third chapter.

In the third chapter "Recommendations to improve the diagnosis of discriminant models of crisis" study method of constructing statistical models based on discriminant analysis, and construct a model to predict the financial condition of the coal mine.

Quite often, to assess the probability of bankruptcy and creditworthiness of the company used the integral factor models E. Altman, Fox, Tafflera and other developed using multivariate analysis of the multiplier. However, it should be noted that using the model of Altman and other similar models, requires great care. Testing companies using this model showed that it is not really suitable for assessing the risk of bankruptcy of domestic business entities, since it ignores the specific structure of the capital in various industries.

In Ukraine, the method of discriminant statistical analysis also was extended and accepted. In particular, he used to develop the "Procedure for assessing the financial condition of the beneficiary and the determination of the type of collateral for the servicing and repayment of loans provided through funds from international financial organizations approved by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on 01.04.2003r. № 247. [2]

Procedure establishes uniform methodological foundations of the Ministry of Finance estimates the financial condition of the beneficiary, as well as determine the type and size of software for servicing and repayment of the loan, which is scheduled to give at the expense of international financial institutions.

Value of the integral index is a result of the discriminant function, the independent variables in which there are some factors that characterize the different parameters of the financial condition of the beneficiary. [4]

Review of the experience once again confirms the importance of the statistical method diagnosis of bankruptcy, the possibility and desirability of its use in modern conditions.

For more accuracy is necessary to improve the statistical model, depending to a change in micro— and macro– indicators, scope and increase the amount of statistical sampling.

References

1. Гриценко Л.Л., Боярко І.М. , Губар А.А., «Дискримінантна модель діагностики малих підприємств» //Актуальні проблеми економіки №5(95), 2009

2. Про затвердження Положення про порядок формування та використання резерву для відшкодування можливих втрат за кредитними операціями банків: Постанова Правління національного Бaнку України №279 від 06.07.2000р. (зі змінами та доповненнями).

3. Коваленко В.В., Коренєва О.Г., Крухмаль О.В. «Банківська криза та інструменти антикризового управління» «АКТУАЛЬНІ ПРОБЛЕМИ ЕКОНОМІКИ» НАУКОВИЙ ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ ЖУРНАЛ, 2009, №2

4. Губар А.A., «Дискримінантні моделі діагностики банкрутств», ДВНЗ «УАБС НБУ» — Суми, 2009. — С. 10–12.

5. Сидяга Б. В. «Прогнозування ймовірності банкрутства підприємства« / Богдан Сидяга // Галицький економічний вісник. — 2009. — № 2. — С. 80–83.

6. Шишакова Ю.В., Шишаков К.В. «Системная діагностика ризи сов и банкротства с учетом влияния маркетинговой деятельности» // Вестник Удмуртского Университета — 2009 — вып. 2 — С 112–125

7. Ребрик Ю. С., Система антикризового управління в банку // Соціально–економічні проблеми сучасного періоду України. Фінансовий ринок України: стабілізація та євроінтеграція : зб. наук. праць / Інститут регіональних досліджень Національної Академії Наук України. — Львів, 2009. — Вип. 2(76). — С. 204–210.

Note

When writing this master of the abstract work is not completed yet. The final completion - December 1, 2011 Full text of the work and materials on the topic