Irina Bryanskaya


Faculty School of Economics and Management

Chair Economic cybernetics

Speciality Economic cybernetics

Theme:

Adaptive simulation of the financial security of enterprises

Supervisor: Associate Professor, Kolomytseva Anna O.

Abstract

Content

Introduction

The functioning of enterprises is influenced by many environmental influences, the basic quality of which is the uncertainty. This factor affects the increase in risks and losses in management and financial decisions. It changes the dynamics of financial indicators to determine the negative trends that lead to the bankruptcy of the company. The solution to this problem necessitates the use of quantitative modeling of financial processes under conditions of uncertainty

Relevance of the topic

For many decades, based on the market economy was developed diagnostics, control and protect the enterprise from bankruptcy. The versatility of this system makes it possible to develop a national adaptation policy, the mechanism of protection of enterprises and prevent them from total collapse.

The goals and objectives

The aim of the study is to build adaptive methods for assessing predictive models of risk of bankruptcy.

The realization of this goal necessitates the following tasks:

Overview of Research and Development

System dynamics as a methodology was proposed in 1961 by J. Forrester as a research tool of information feedback in production and business activities, in order to figure out how to interact with the organizational structure, the gain (in politics) and delays (in decisions and actions) , affecting the efficiency of the enterprise. The processes taking place in the real world, in the system dynamics are represented in terms of storage (funds) and flows between them. The system-dynamic model describes the behavior of the system and its structure as a set of interacting reverse the positive and negative connections and delays. Mathematically, this model looks like a system of differential equations.

Methods of system dynamics are supported by tools such as DYNAMO, Stella, Vensim, PowerSim, iThink, ModelMaker, etc.

One of the most revealing areas of application of the device system dynamics - Simulation of the financial and credit activities. So, there are a number of models of banking and insurance institutions, executed by PowerSim and iThink, providing the calculation of indicators of current and future periods, the forecasts of individual transactions and the state of the financial institution as a whole, evaluating the attractiveness of investment trends, assessing the effectiveness of loan and deposit portfolios of the bank and etc.

Diagnosis is to identify the state of the object, object, phenomenon or process control through a set of research procedures and the development of the main areas to stabilize. The subject of diagnosis may be difficult as vysokorganizovannaya dynamical system (industry, company) and any element of these systems (resources, organizational structure, the cost of production).

The result will be a model of movement of financial flows of the company in times of threats that affect the volume of production and sales, as well as on the rate of repayment of receivables from customers.

The development and formulation of a mathematical equation system dynamics model

Forrester system dynamics method is an effective tool for modeling financial flows. Its use allows to build a model of financial processes, presented a set of levels that are linked financial flows. The block diagram of the system of equations supplemented streams that measure and to quantify the dynamic changes in the financial condition of the company at various controls. Such a mathematical model to explore how to change the level of stability of the financial condition of the company in the implementation of the various options for financial strategy for a given initial condition and the parameters of the environment. That is, the main advantage of this technique is that it allows the process of building the model of financial flows to obtain the basic structural relationships between financial performance, making it easy to adapt the model to the conditions of the operation of any enterprise by changing the rules for forming intensity flows.

The choice of this method is also due to the fact that it fully reflects the essence of the financial processes determines the accumulation of Finance in the form of levels, cash flows, move content between levels, in the form of rates, as well as to determine a large number of parameters characterizing the state of the internal environment.

Management processes of formation, distribution, use of financial resources and spending on enterprise in the face of uncertainty, an acute shortage of time to make a decision requires an adequate change management system and increase the flexibility of financial decisions. As a result of the master's work will build a simulation model for determining the type of financial crisis that adequately reflects the financial flows of the enterprise.

Conclusion

The methodology of system dynamics has been constructed so as to make applicable to the practice of philosophy. For this we used and modified the known methods of representation of flow diagrams, mathematical modeling and simulation. On the basis of the signal flow diagrams used for analysis of electronic systems were developed causal diagram for a visual representation of the current situation. As a next step, for the majority of System Dynamics projects have been set up formal flow charts presented in the form of systems of differential equations. As flow charts, and equations express managerial communication using two categories: storage and flows. The drives are such real-world objects, which focus some resources: knowledge (ideas), funds, sources of labor, etc. Streams - all active components of the system: Streams efforts (attempts), information flows, account payments, etc.

The proposed model estimates of the type of the financial crisis, companies in the action of the dominant threats will allow for timely diagnosis of the financial condition of the company, to develop scenarios of the financial plan and a set of measures aimed at minimizing or eliminating the effects of exposure to threats.

References

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