Top page
Українська   Русский
DonNTU   Masters' portal

Summary on final work

Drafting of risk management at the stage of introduction of new technology in the enterprise

content

Introduction

With the economic crisis, breaking the bonds between enterprises, acute issue of production of the main raw material. This raw material for the production of fire extinguishers on BP (private) "Makeyevka plant "Fakel" is extinguishing powder.

Besides using extinguishing powder in the production of extinguishers, an important part of fire safety any and all businesses and organizations have timely maintenance of fire extinguishers that are in the required amounts on the balance sheet, which implies, in particular, and timely replacement or dosypannya extinguishing powder in fire extinguishers during maintenance. In the plant "Fakel" data service provides a large number of organizations that have a license for this type of work. These organizations also have difficulties with the supply of raw materials and spare parts in the maintenance and potential buyers extinguishing powder, which is planned to produce the projected line. In our country at present there is no enterprise - the manufacturer of the product.

Coming extinguishing powder suppliers today are enterprises - manufacturers of. However, due to difficulties with customs clearance, remote geographical situation of these companies, the cost of imported extinguishing powder increased by 2-3 times compared with factory prices.

The decision to start developing project of extinguishing powder production line, which is connected as involving equity and with large credit facilities, significantly raises the risk of the project. Therefore, the involvement of reliable data on the cost of expensive equipment, construction schemes for the further development of production, the cost of the product - topical and important task.

The purpose and objectives of the degree project

The aim of the diploma project is the development of the project production lines extinguishing powder, which includes: reconstruction of a former boiler house, dismantle unused manufacturing equipment, production line installation extinguishing powder.

Construction of the line to be implemented in the territory of JSC Makeevka (private) "Makeyevka plant" Fakel "project-based assembly line of units produced mining machinery industry.

The purpose of the project - to meet the needs of "Makeyevka plant "Fakel" in its own raw materials, as well as organizations that produce maintenance of fire extinguishers in the extinguishing powder.

As a source of funding for the project will use their own funds.

For the purpose of the degree project must perform the following tasks:

One of the main objectives of the project is to determine the sensitivity to changes in performance of different parameters. The wider range of parameters in which performance remains within acceptable values, the higher the "margin of safety" project, the better it is protected against fluctuations of various factors affecting the results of the project.

Contact real projects

This work was based on a real project being implemented within the existing production. All data and company names are replaced for submission to the thesis work as a trade secret.

The object and purpose of the study

Object is a project management processes creating extinguishing powder production line based on the existing business. Subject of research - the project of building production lines extinguishing powder.

Research methods

We used the methods of production strategies of portfolio instruments project manager:

The practical significance of the results

The results obtained in this thesis project, scientifically confirm the value creation project management extinguishing powder production line and environment project because the principle of Pareto concentration of 20% of the most significant factors allow for the project to 80% of the total strategic information. The methodology and tools presented in this thesis project can be used to manage other projects regardless of their orientation.

The introduction of new technology due to unavoidable risks. On the concept of risk and uncertainty should elaborate.

The concept of "risk" and "uncertainty"

Any purposeful human activities, in fact, directed to the future, that there is always a time gap between the initial effort, involving expenditure of resources and the end result. Hence, the end result obviously not deterministic, that is not reliably predictable due to the influence of several factors. This simple fact was the source of categories such as risk and uncertainty.

The emergence of uncertainty may be due to economic, political, natural, temporary and other sources. It can be produced external or internal environment, conflict situations divergence of interests, etc. You can identify the main causes of uncertainty:

Fig. 1.1 The possible outcomes are manifestations of uncertainty.

Figure 1.1
Fig. 1.1. Result of uncertainty manifestations
(animation: 3 frames, unlimited cycles of repeating, 32 kilobytes)

The concept of "uncertainty" is closely linked with the concept of "risk". Judging from the literature, this fact was first noticed A.H.Uilletom then F.Nayt that highlighted the concept of "dimensional (risk)" and "immeasurable uncertainty." In determining this J. Pfeffer, said that the risk - a state of the world or a combination of several types of gambling, the measured probability and uncertainty measured by the faith and is a state of imagination.

The most clear definition of risk and uncertainty probably look like this: uncertainty - is incomplete or inaccurate understanding of the significance of various parameters in the future, generated by various causes and especially the incomplete or inaccurate information provided solutions, including related costs and results. The uncertainty associated with the possibility of occurrence in the implementation of decisions and consequences of adverse situations, characterized by the concept of "risk".

Historically the category of "risk" was formed on the basis of human awareness of possible adverse effects and dangers during events associated with a particular activity.

With the advent of commodity-money relations is risk including economic category. As an economic category takes into account the risk of rejection of the results of economic activity goals.

At present, the scientific literature is quite large composition presented definitions of "risk" associated with doing business (economic or business) activities. In explanatory dictionaries risk is usually interpreted as a threat, the possibility of loss or damage.

When possible risk refers to the risk of losses resulting from certain natural phenomena and activities of human society. PM Katchalov determines the economic risk (reflecting the impact of random factors on the performance of the manufacturing company), a concept that reflects reality as undesirable development of business enterprises in the given situation the decision. Other sources suggested at risk understand probability (threat) now losing some of their resources, loss of income or of additional costs in the implementation of certain production or financing activities.

In the literature, there are other interpretations of the concept:

Overall analysis shows that the definition of risk have to consider the following points:

In the above definitions of risk associated only with the possibility of undesirable developments. However, it has long been observed and special property risk: the desire to minimize it at the same time often leads to lower income. For the first time in the scientific literature is the property risk was observed apparently Adam Smith, who wrote that the rate of return is always more or less together increases the risk, but this increase is probably not proportional.

In national publications this property risks has received little attention, although it was noted that the nature of risk - not the harm caused to the implementation of the decisions and the possibility of deviation from the purpose for which achievement the decision was taken. The narrowing of the concept of "risk" only account possible damage would limit its use in the economic field.

The interpretation of risk as any, not just the negative deviations typical of most Western scholars and experts, and this interpretation is beginning to introduce the first courses of universities.

Understanding the nature of risk analysis contributes to signs of a risk situation, that situation a decision under risk. In concentrated form, these symptoms can be formulated as follows:

LPS consider themselves knowledgeable about the consequences of each decision and organizes their consequences, preferring some other consequences.

The key thing that distinguishes a risk of uncertain situation is the presence of clear benefits ODA related to its objectives, which ultimately determined by its economic interests - that a third of these signs of risk situations. Uncertain situation is characterized as follows: LPS or imagine what the consequences of its decisions, or not fully aware of the fact that the consequences are more favorable towards the goal. As an uncertain situation can be considered a decision on supporting a candidate in elections to the authorities. If the decision maker can not clearly answer the question of which candidate winning more profitable for him (in his interest), the situation should be considered uncertain, even if the probability of winning each of the candidates fairly reasonably priced.

In connection with the above, we will use such language concepts:

These statements take into account the objective nature of the uncertainties due to the presence of factors nondeterministic nature by which the end result of the decision can not be clearly defined.

This uncertainty and risk is not linked to any specific tools, used to describe them. Risk associated with uncertainty because of the refraction of subjective attitude towards the consequences of manifestations and uncertainties associated with the economic interests of a particular person that decides. Therefore, in simplified form link risk uncertainty expressed by the formula

Uncertainty + Risk = ATS subjective attitude to the consequences of its manifestation.

This definition takes into account the risks including the possibility of random factors favorable impact on the results of the decision, such additional, unplanned benefit as a result of risky decisions. Thus, in contrast to the uncertainty that is objectively existing characteristics, risk - a characteristic subjective.

With regard to the investment project concept of "risk" and "uncertainty" is most fully revealed in some studies, where the uncertainty is understood inaccuracy and incompleteness of information on the conditions (scenarios) project, while risk is defined as the possibility of failure to reach each of the project participants planned result.

The impact of uncertainties in the implementation of the project results:

A variety of information about the conditions of the project can not be considered vague parameters of the project only as random: in recent years discovered and explored many other uncertainties, such as those when the parameters of the project are given their intervals, likelihood functions or families of probability distributions.

conclusion

The use of the proposed thesis work in risk assessment methodology innovation will ensure the most appropriate level of management decisions and actions in terms of risk, which should be defined and constantly adjusted in the practical implementation of any innovation project.

list of sources

  1. Mazur II, Shapiro VD, Olderohhe NG Project Management M. Omega-L, 2004.
  2. Vladimir Popov, Lyapunov S. Mlodyk S. Zverev A. Collection of business plans. On the recommendations and comments. Publisher: KnoRus, 2004 336 s.
  3. Project analysis. Ed. SA Moskvina. - M .: TOB "Publisher Libra", 1998.-368 with.
  4. The restructuring of the company: Textbook for students of economy, trends / Ed. VD Shapiro. St. Petersburg: Two Three. - 1996 - 610
  5. Guide to the construction of knowledge in Project Management (Management RMVOK). American National Standard ANSI / PMI99-001- 2004 Project Management Institute, 2004. - 388 p.
  6. Glossary Directory Project Management / SD Bushuev Ukrainian association of project management. - M .: Publishing house "Business Ukraine", 2001. - 640 p.
  7. Project Management: Interior work / ed. Mazur II, Shapiro VD. - M.: High. School, 2001. - 875 p.
  8. Project management. Practical Guide. - M.: Yurkniha, 2003.-288 with.
  9. Finance companies: Textbook / V. Kolchin, GB Polyak, L. Pavlov, etc .; ed. prof. N. V.Kolchinoy. - M .: UNITY, 2000. - 413 p.