Object of a research of the given work is the process of re-structuring of the enterprises of a coal industry of Ukraine and activity of the state company "Ukruglerestrukturizatsiya".

Outcome of work is the complex of economic-mathematical models reflecting industrial, financial, socio economic processes, peculiar to a coal industry during re-structuring, for a various sort of objects: the coal enterprises, coal region, coal branch, fuel and energy complex.

The outcomes of work can be applied to forecasting development of the acting coal enterprises in market conditions; for an evaluation of social strength owing to liquidation of coal production in miner's cities and settlements; for forecasting development of a social infrastructure in coal regions in conditions of re-structuring of a coal sector; for an evaluation of the investment projects oriented on creation of new jobs.

Use of simulation models

It is represented expedient as a methodical fundamentals of alternative forecasting to recommend a method of a simulation modelings based on it use for the analysis of dynamic mathematical models of economic objects in a mode of imitation. In conditions of modern information technologies it is accepted to understand imitation study of objects by realization of experiments with the mathematical models, realized on the computer. The key feature of an imitative research consists that in this research the experiments not with real object, and from it by a mathematical model are carried out. The imitative researches are used for the analysis of complicated systems in various areas, including for the analysis socio economic and productions. It is difficult to overestimate a role of a method of a simulation modeling in researches on problems of re-structuring of coal branch, as the possibilities of realization full-scale experiments or experiments with material models in this case are absent.

In imitative accounts investigated socio economic and the productions are described as difference parities(ratio) of an economic-mathematical model reflecting dynamics of development of these processes. The mathematical description of a model is developed because of uses of existing economic-mathematical methods in a combination to intuitive modelling and will be realized as the computer program, on which experiments are carried out by submission on an input of external effects in the form of the task of significances of source parameters of a model, and account of target parameters. The variants of the scripts of accounts are formed by the task of significances of source parameters. An additional problem of imitative experiments is the maintenance of necessary adequacy of developed models to real objects.

Functionalities of a system of models

For forecasting consequences of a various sort of solutions in the field of re-structuring coal branch it is supposed to develop a system of dynamic simulation models mapping industrial, financial, socio economic processes, peculiar to a coal industry during re-structuring, for a various sort of objects: the coal enterprises (joint-stock company, coal company, mine, slit, concentrating mill), coal region (area, city), coal branch, fuel and energy complex. The system of models presumably will include:

• forecasting of development of the acting coal enterprises in market conditions;
• forecasting of dynamics of a modification of number of the workers of the coal enterprise in conditions of liquidation of unpromising mines;
• forecasting of development of a social infrastructure in coal regions in conditions of re-structuring of a coal sector;
• evaluation of social strength owing to liquidation of coal production in miner's cities and settlements;
• evaluation of the investment projects oriented on construction of new jobs;
• forecasting of an occupation level in угледобывающих regions in conditions of re-structuring of coal branch.

Functional components of a system of models

In relation to the acting coal enterprises the development of productive and ecomonic models oriented on the following real objects is supposed:

• the coal enterprises are unprofitable, but continue to act for want of to support of the state without the further extension of production;
• the coal enterprises are perspective, continue to act and to develop (the construction of new potencies instead of leaving) is carried out techrearmament;
• the coal enterprises are not perspective, the liquidations under the given schedule of closing of mines are subject.

At a level of the coal enterprise (joint-stock company, mine, slit) the model of movement of number of the workers will be developed, in which on years of prognostic period the volume of employment and number of the freed workers will settle up in connection with closing unprofitable and unpromising mines. The number of the freed workers will be represented in a structure: number of the pensioners, number of the workers предпенсионного of age, number of the freed workers requiring job placement.

Such structure allows to expect a total sum of the necessary social allowances to the freed workers. The model of forecasting of development of a social infrastructure in miner's cities and settlements in conditions of re-structuring of a coal sector can be offered as the tool is informational - analytical of support of acceptance of the indicated solutions and is actual for perspective of coal regions, in which, alongside with closing of unprofitable mines, the development perspective, construction of new competitive mines is supposed. In this model the construction new and slum clearance, construction of a gas conduit and other communication objects, construction of schools, children's gardens, objects of public health services, culture etc., ordering of objects of a social field (transfer of social objects of the coal enterprises to the municipal property) will be reflected.

Evaluation of social strength

Taking into account a urgency of constant watching of social strength in miner's cities and settlements owing to liquidation of the coal enterprises, the following integrated parameter of its evaluation is offered:

Here parameters of specific security of the population by objects of a social field (housing accomodation, sick-lists bed, kindergartens, schools etc.) are the factors of a standart of living of the population of coal region. As the construction of objects of a social infrastructure in regions is carried out in conditions of boundedness of the budgetary funds, the role of a problem of minimization of the costs directed on social construction is quite clear. The following problem of optimization of the costs on social construction in this connection can be decided:

It is obvious, that, the above standart of living of the population of region, the less significance of a parameter of social strength, the more effective is an administrative solution on re-structuring a social infrastructure. At the same time, varying parameters of means on social construction in the scripts of accounts, it is possible to be defined with acceptable for given of coal region by variant of management of development of a social field.

Functional structure of a complex model

The complex model of forecasting of an occupation level in coal regions is necessary for developing with allowance for of correlations and interdependence between sectors of economy of coal region in conditions of re-structuring of a coal industry and should include the following blocks:

• the demographic block;
• industrial field;
• non-productive field;
• occupation level of the population;
• standart of living of the population.

The socio economic processes on the mentioned above blocks of a complex model are subdivided as follows (see table 1).

Main managing parameters in сценарных accounts with a complex model are the volumes of the investments on directions of their use. The output datas describe consequences of acceptance of such solutions.

Criterions of an evaluation of efficiency of variants of re-structuring of the enterprises of a coal industry

The important prior condition of development both realization of the various programs and measures of re-structuring of a coal industry is the precise statement first of all of financial interests of the state, enterprises and their workers.

As for want of realizations of the financial policy госорганы actually dispose of money resources being the property of all citizens of country, such organs should aspire to deriving the maximum income from use of state resources. For want of it, naturally, the obligations, legislatively taken up by the state, of an industrial, investment, social, ecological character etc.

Therefore, the nation-wide (economic) criterion of efficiency of operation of the coal enterprises, pools and branch as a whole consists in a maximization of the pure budget incomes formed at the expense of the taxes and equated to a it of payments, incomes of commercial use state property, minus state financing of capital investments, grants of social, industrial and other character.

It is necessary to underline, that for want of to financial evaluation of work of concrete object (enterprise, pool, the branches) in the correspondence with the methodology of the design analysis should be considered all outgoing (for example, tax) and entering streams on stretch of all forthcoming period of operation. For want of long-term analysis of object the annual financial streams settle up which further by way discounting are resulted in one temporary basis. On basis of obtained thus magnitudes the various parameters of the financial totals, for example of pure indicated cost – NPV, employees by a criterion of a selection of the best variants of operation of researched object can be designed.

Briefly economic basis of protectionism concerning the economic subjects occupied with commercial activity, can be represented so. First of all it is necessary to divide granting of privileges with the purpose of magnification (or preservation) volumes of production and with the purpose of sponsorship of the closed in due course enterprises. In the correspondence with an above mentioned criterion of efficiency of state financing of the grant will be expedient, if will give the guaranteed magnification of tax payments at the expense of growth of production in a forthcoming perspective, and the sum discounted of annual surtaxes will appear more sum дисконтированных of the annual grants. If as norm discounting the prognosis of the average rate of bank percent or average rate of return, that undertakes, the sponsorship gives not smaller effect, than accommodation of the same means in banks under predictable the average rate of bank percent.

On the other hand, for the reasonable solution about closing the concrete enterprise it is necessary to give an evaluation of comparative efficiency of its preservation during period necessary for compensating escalating of production at the expense of internal profitable production.

Other reason of the compelled preservation unprofitable in acting tax-grant system of production can be defect of the budgetary funds on liquidation and payment of social costs. It is necessary also to mean the important social function of the acting enterprises (especially in "cities - factories") - preservation of jobs and systems of life-support for the workers and members of their families. Therefore, there is a problem of choice best tax-grant mode for productions, saved during determined time.

Thus, the economic approach to an evaluation of efficiency of preservation or closing of the enterprise requires comparison of dynamics (in addition to usual parameters of the design analysis):

• the tax incomes and grants (for want of preservation of the enterprise) and their reduction in case of liquidation;
• payments of the unemployment benefits;
• costs on job placement, possible resettlement, construction of new housing accomodation, creation of new jobs.

For want of it as possible alternatives various terms of closing, налогово-дотационные modes should be studied. Among possible methods of operation of the enterprise it is necessary to provide:

• work in a mode of self-repayment, self-financing (under condition of deriving it by the workers of the acceptable salary) or closing - with allowance for of all possible costs;
• operation in acting and offered the taxation orders, and also in non-tax mode.

Was spoken about a reflection of state interests for want of solution of problems of re-structuring of a coal industry above. As to interests of the chiefs of the enterprise, natural it is possible to consider their interest in a prolongation of work of the acting productions, at least, in a mode of self-repayment. The interests of the workers (with other things being equal) consist in stablis deriving irreducible of wages in a forthcoming perspective (for want of prolongation of work of the enterprise). They are interested in a case closings of the enterprise in indemnification of all costs on placement, and also possible costs on change of a residence.

The coordination of interests of the state, management and workers of the enterprise should be ensured with choice of such variants of operation of the acting enterprises (technical reequipment, reconstruction, extension or liquidation) and tax-grand modes for them, for want of which are ensured:

• maximization of the pure (indicated) budget incomes;
• acceptable rate of return for the profitable enterprises or, at least, mode of self-repayment for continuing the certain time work, and afterwards of closed enterprises;
• acceptable level of payment of a transactions of the workers;
• cover of all social and other liqudating costs in case of closing the enterprise.

Conclusions

In the given work was considered and the process of re-structuring of a coal industry of Ukraine and place in it of the state company "Ukruglerestrukturizatsiya" is analyzed. Was formulated main positions of a complex of economic-mathematical models reflecting industrial, financial, socio economic processes, peculiar to a coal industry during re-structuring. Parameters of an evaluation of social strength in miner's cities and settlements owing to liquidation of the coal enterprises also were certain.

The considered models, first of all, are recommended to use as the tool of realization scenario of experiments, which can appear useful in accounts connected to a decision making for want of shaping of the regional programs of re-structuring of a coal industry, programs of local development in conditions of re-structuring of coal production. At a level of the coal enterprises the appropriate models also will appear useful in practice of the analysis current and forecasting of a perspective financial condition of the enterprise.

The circumscribed models are supposed to be realized as a program - tool complex, which would ensure a possibility of a solution of the following classes of problems:

1. Analytical problems – calculation of any analytical parameters because of retrospective information from a data base.
2. The imitative problems – are executed with use of the scripts of control actions for calculation of resulting variables. The problems of this class are applied to an evaluation of consequences of a decision making.