Faculty: "Computer Information Technology and Automation"
Speciality: "Information Management System"

Theme of master's work: System development of demand forecasting on home appliances with genetic algorithm on firm JC "Group "NORD"
Leader of work: reader Jukova Tamara Porfirievna

Email:
olechkaorlova@gmail.com
olyaor@cable.netlux.org

Abstract

Urgency of a research subject

The necessity of forecasting developments realization in all orbs of a national economy increased, in conditions of market relations development The effective activity of industrial enterprise largely depends on, how much authentic they anticipate a distant and short-range outlook of the development, n conditions of competition.

The processes of deep transformation of domestic economical system in whole and formation of the market industrial production in particular determine the significance of a research subject. Market of household production is one of the last one’s parts.

It is necessary to use such competently tool as forecasting, founded on the analysis and estimation of the state and prospects for the development of demand, proposal, prices, competition in the market, where there are the potential partners and where the operation of firm is supposed, for maintenance of effective activity and increase of competitiveness of firm in the market of household production,

System transformation of the economical forecasting is one of the relevant members of transformations, which are contributing to normal operation of industrial firms in varied economic conditions. It should be directed on radical restructurings in forecasting, that encompass in capacities development of the diversified control problems solution in conditions of instability of an environment with help of adequate toolkit, which require substantiation and installation of orb of its usage.

The process control of demand forecasting in the market of household production is apart actual and significant problem which require steadfast attention and solution for modern firms in given branches.

The purposes and research problems

Purpose of work consists in development of the computer-controlled subsystem of demand forecasting on home appliances with help of genetic algorithms in conditions of joint-stock company "Group "NORD", development of the practical guidelines on process control of demand forecasting in the market of household production with allowance specificities of its operation in conditions of a growing competition.

The purpose of work required solution of interdependent problems series, namely:
- To learn and extend methodical basis of organization and process control forecasting in market conditions;
- To investigate specificity and features of demand forecasting process in the market of home appliances in conditions of growing competition;
- To reveal the basic problems and to justify the reasons of demand forecasting process control improvement in the market of home appliances;
- To elaborate conceptual model of control demand forecasting process control in the market of home appliances;
- To determine the basic organization procedures of forecasting service on firm of the given profile;
- To justify reference directions of demand forecasting process control improvement in a contour of enterprise control system with application of modern computer-information technologies;
- To analyze methodical and theoretical material of different influencing factors on demand and demand forecasting production;
- To analyze mathematical methods and to justify a selected method for selected purpose of master’s work achievement;
- To execute formalizing of problem.

Selected method

It is offered to use genetic algorithms for building of a demand forecasting system of production, which one earlier were used in the greater measure only in the financial markets, insurance campaigns and some banks.

In some cases identification of demand function parameters using genetic algorithms can be more effective than in standard seasonal demand forecasting

Shape of a demand function should be inferred from internal and external environments of each firm. It is impossible to propose general formula of a demand function applicable to all economic conditions of different firms. In some firms demand could depend mainly on one factor but in other firms tens of important factors influencing demand can be identified.

Frequently, as the first approximation, it is assumed that the demand function is a function of time (e.g. linear, logarithmic, exponential etc) representing a trend of demand. It is well known that the price is one of the most important factors influencing demand of almost all products and services. It is possible to propose a combination of classical trend approach (i.e., demand as a function of time) and the economic textbook demand function (i.e., demand as a function of price).

Main problem is the definition of a fitness function (F). It ought to be a measure of “distance” of model generated data and collected real data.

To the begining