Introduction

         One of the main purposes of functioning of the Ukrainian enterprises in modern conditions of economy's development and expanding competition between manufacturers of the industrial goods is output of competitive production with use of the progressive equipment, high technologies and more productive methods of the labour organization.
         Moreover, the enterprises need a transition to the new level of strategic management which differs from traditional manufacture by high flexibility. Only in this case, defining appeal of those or other markets, predicting in real time arrivals, planning volume of output and sales, expenses, investment effect, it is possible to speak about successful activity of the enterprises in the conditions of constant change of a requirements package of the galloping market environment.

Urgency of the theme
        Maximum profit earning in a long-term outlook is not always the main corporate objective. The principal boost of their functioning is often driving for stabilization their position in the market which can be characterized by a set of various parameters, including the size of the profit received from the sale of the products [1].
         Only a skillful management with use of modern means of the analysis, modeling the administrative process, computerization of the informal procedures of managerial decision making leads to successful development of the enterprise in the chosen direction.
          Important actual problem is a creation of modern adaptive system which could be able to solve existing problems of the industrial enterprises being guided by changing conditions of the market.

The purposes and research problems

          The purpose of master's work is Economic-Mathematical Model development of industrial-marketing system [2] and the mechanism of adapting a company's functioning to the market environment conditions with the subsequent analysis of efficiency of its practical use.
          For goal achievement in this work following problems were set and solved:

• Methodology-theoretical bases and aspects of implementation of the complex analysis of enterprise's development were investigated;
• (Basic) modern evaluation procedures of enterprise's functioning success, experience of application of adaptive mechanisms at the industrial enterprises were analyzed, their merits and demerits were revealed [3,4].
• The most significant factors from a set of factors of the environment influencing enterprise's functioning were chosen;
• The technique of assessment and classification of parameters in compliance with various conditions of enterprise's functioning was worked out;
• The neural network was trained to analyze available tendencies of changes and to carry out the forecast the values of each of indicators for a certain time interval [5];
• The technique of a valuation of the expediency of enterprise's adaptation was offered;
• The Decision Support System in the conditions of destabilizing influences was developed.

        The subject of inquiry: the process of to the uncertainty of the business environment.
      The subject of investigation: Economic-Mathematical modeling of adapting a company's functioning to the external condition's changes.

Scientific novelty of results

          Scientific novelty of the master's work consists in the following:
      - The principles of selection of strategic reference points for enterprise's adapting were proved and models of adaptive mechanism's application at the industrial enterprises were developed;
       - Modeling with use of the mathematical apparatus constructed on the basis of neural networks allows to estimate correctness of the chosen by the enterprise adapting strategy in the future period, to reduce time for building-up the administrative decisions which are expedient in connection with change of the market conditions;
       - Theoretical preconditions of maintenance of volume's accretion for training samples due to the successful classification of work conditions of the enterprises were developed.

Practical value of the work

          The management model on the basis of the new effective mechanism of adapting process of its activity to changing market conditions for the industrial enterprise were developed. This can allow us to predict forthcoming of destabilizing influences, to provide financial stability of the enterprise and to correct its activity for the purpose of achievement the best results in comparison with its competitors.
          The program of valuation a company's functioning was developed. It possesses simple intuitively clear interface for the usual user. Also it does not require any special qualification for the analysis of a current market conditions and planning the schedule of adaptive action's introduction.
         In spite of the fact that the model was developed for the industrial enterprises, it can be also adapted to functioning of other enterprises in economy's real sector. It can be used for a financial valuation of not only own condition, but also a valuation of a financial condition of the competitors, potential partners and branches.

A review of research on the subject
          Conceptual bases of the adapting process's theory and adaptive systems have been under study by such scientists as V.N.Antonov, M.Bodson, L.A.Rastrigin, S.Sastri, G.Sele, U. R.Eshbi. Questions of adaptation of productive and economic systems were engaged in works of S.Bir, V.A.Zabrodsky, V.Prabhu, V.I.Skurihin.
         Sleptsova N.S., Chuprova D.B. [6], Bolotov S.P., Hristianovsky worked to find new models of adapting process for the industrial enterprises to environmental conditions [7].


Summary of own results available at the time of completion the abstract
         The model of the company's adapting process to the change of market conditions is presented in work as a set of subsystems-blocks:

1. the block of monitoring of the set parameters of changes environmental conditions and revealing of destabilization by the analysis of deviation value for efficiency design indexes of enterprise's functioning from the norms accepted by an expert way;
2. the prediction unit of tendencies in changes of deviating from the norm model's parameters;
3. the selection unit of adapting process's optimal strategy in the developed market conditions according to the set interval target parameters of enterprise's activity (for example, net profit ratio, volume of the profit, additional expenses for realization of adapting process).

         The basic input parameters for block "Monitoring" in model were:

• values of all articles of expenses for standard calculation of the total cost of output [8];
• Prices and demand for finished commodity in Ukraine and abroad;
• Tax policy and the sum of grants-in-aid;
• Prices of the competitor's similar output;
• Lending rate, volume of enterprise's loans and the inflation index;
• Volume of the output and sale proceeds;
• Possible losses from the natural accidents and etc. (random component).

         The revealing of the destabilizing economic situation and defining quality of enterprise's functioning is the result of work for this unit.
Segregation of some specific indicators, which are significant for decision-making concerning the future strategy of output [9]. The further calculation of the integral index allows to classify the enterprise and to display the received information on the diagram that is divided into areas:

• a hypereffective condition of enterprise's functioning. All changes of environment's indexes are in the area of legitimate values. The enterprise functions effectively on its capacity according to all established target parameters. However, despite current success of enterprise's work, there is a probability of money contingencies connected with fast equiment wear and reduced enterprise's ability to change work's strategy of functions easily and well-timed;
• a condition of steady work's effectiveness of the enterprise (the most favourable economic situation for the enterprise). It is characterized by such conditions of the enterprise's functioning when the change of environment's indexes are in the area of legitimate values and the enterprise successfully functions on its capacity according to all established target parameters.
• a hazardous condition of enterprise's functioning (one or several parameters deviate from the norms, but in general efficiency indexes of enterprise's functioning change slightly and they are in the area of legitimate values);
• a critical (emergency) condition of enterprise's functioning (all or some values of parameters have considerably deviated from the set of norms, the enterprise works astably; the absence of the adapting process can lead to the bankruptcy).

         Demonstration realization of the model is shown in figure 1.

 

   

         Figure 1 – Demonstration realization of the model (Animation: volume - 137 KБ; the size - 300х300; quantity of the shots - 8; a delay between shots - 50 ms; a delay between last and the first shots - 880 ms; quantity of recycles - 8)
          The block "Forecasting" is realized in work by creation and training a neural network on the basis of significant factors of environment's change, allocated by construction a correlation matrix, calculation of correlation's factors between indicators and reduction of its dimension by elimination from it less significant indexes.
          In the selection unit of adapting process's optimal strategy to destabilization efficiency indexes were calculated and compared (smooth production flows, liquidity ratio, completeness, profitability, etc.) [10]. If thepositive effect from adapting process exceeds expenses for their adoption it is considered as justifiable act.

Conclusions

      Use of the developed model allows us to receive administrative decisions taking into account changing sizes of input parameters of system that provides continuous tracing and updating of efficiency of activity of the enterprise in real time.

         Important note: at the time of writing this abstract the master's project has not been finished yet. The Final date is December 2011.The full text and materials on a theme can be received from the author or the tutor of the project after this date.

References

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