Gaidyr Nataliia

Abstract

Introduction

        Conversion  Ukraine from command administrative economy to free market economy was accompanied by change of conditions and principles of functioning of activities. Macroeconomic instability, on the one hand, and absence of an operational experience in the competitive environment, on the other, have led to appearence and intensification of the crisis phenomena at the domestic enterprises. For this reason there was a problem of financial crisis of subjects of housekeeping, there was a necessity of its regulation at the state level and invention of system of diagnostics and the bankruptcy prevention, and also strategy of exit from crisis situations at the enterprises.

Urgency

               Seriousness of consequences of financial crisis at  the enterprise, for its suppliers, part-time workers, financially-credit institutions, investors, occupied workers, predetermines necessity of introduction system of economic actions, capable to prevent deep financial crisis, thus the important role is taken to diagnostics of financial crisis at  the enterprise [1].
             The work urgency is that the estimation of a financial condition of activity at the enterprise is a main point of effective control in all aspects,. Such estimation accompanies realization of plans, helps to survive in market environment. Results of the analysis of a financial condition give the chance to develop the further plan of financial and marketing strategy.

Expected scientific novelty

            At the present stage in development of economy of Ukraine the question of a financial condition of the enterprise is very actual. The success of activity at the enterprise depends on a financial condition. Therefore a lot of attention is given to the analysis of a financial conditions at the enterprise.

           Defect of models of estimation financial crisis and their discrepancy leave a big field to scientists and theorists of all world.

          There are exist some of the combined and aggregated estimations which use various approaches, such as indistinct sets [9], association of indicators on the basis of their correlation dependence[8], etc.

 

The review of researches on a theme

           There are such known scientists as Jean Charles Leonar, , D.Rikardo, K.Marx, I.Shumpeter, M.Kondratjaev, and later D.Keynes and M.Tugan-Baranovsky who put their minds on a problem of financial crisis .
 At the present stage of economy in Ukraine process of realisation of actions at the enterprises faces the challenges such as  absence of the prepared experts, shortage of the theoretical works.
          After that all enterprises were convert to the automated programs of calculation of financial indicators, there is a problem of a choice of an optimal program
Diagnostics of level of a crisis condition at the enterprise provides definition of four basic factors:

 - Factor of current liquidity;

- Factor of own means;

- Factor of renewal of solvency at the enterprise;

- Factor of loss of solvency at the enterprise;

All these factors use such indicators as the sum of the first section of actives and the sum of the first section of a passive [3].

Except system of financial factors for early prevention of the crisis phenomena are used special generalising indicators.

    Most known is the five-factorial model of American economist E.Altman.

    Altman discriminant function has such appearance (formula 1.1):

Z=1,2Õ1+1,4Õ2+3,3Õ3+0,6Õ4+Õ5,            (1.1)

Where

Õ1 - the Working capital / balance Currency;

Õ2 - surplus earnings (the uncovered loss) and the reserve capital / balance Currency;

Õ3 - earnings before interest and taxes / balance Currency;

Õ4 – market value of the enterprises (market value of the corporate rights) / the loan capital;

Õ5 - net avails / balance Currency.

     The conclusion made by Altman basis on  analysis of 33 steams of the industrial enterprises with volume of currency of balance from 1 to 25 million dollar, presented in table 1.2.

   Table 1.2 Interpretation Z - indicator

Value «Z»	Probability of bankruptcy
1	2
To 1,8 1,81 - 2,70  2,71 - 2,99 3,0 and more	Very high High  Possible Low

 

            Except Altman's model there are multifactorial models Bremen, Biver and others.
Any of methods is not effective, for example, liquidity factors can characterise a financial position as satisfactory, however this estimation can be incorrect. The basic methods estimation of financial crisis at the enterprises, it is possible both to supplement, and to combine with other methods in order to achieve reliable results. That is why  the problem of improvement of methods that estimatimates financial crisis at the enterprise is actual.

Specialised software products

           It is impossible to make a  deep financial analysis without using  special software today/
           Now the market of information systems represents many products which are allowing users to estimate results of activity of the companies according to the accounting reporting. They differ on a spectrum of the involved indicators and other characteristics.

 There is a hard problem for users to choose the best program.

The basic programs  are:

1. «Inek - Analyst»

2. «Audit Expert»

3. «Onvision»

4. «The Alt – Finances »

5. «ABFI - enterprise»

6. «Excel Financial Analysis» Etc.

Table 2 - comparative analysis of programs

Possibilities	«Inek - Analyst»	"Audit Expert"	"Onvision"	"An alt- the Finances"	"ABFI enterprise"	"Excel Financial Analysis"
Possibility of export from1Ñ	+	+	-	-	+	+
Possibility of tracing schedules and diagrammes	+	+	+	-	+	+
Calculation of financial factors	+	+	+	+	+	+
Possibility to use integrated techniques	+	+	-	+	+	-
Demand  of presence Microsoft Office on PC	-	-	-	+	+	+

 

             All programs are use methods of calculation of a financial crisis at the enterprise which are not effective and can give incorrect results. That’s why scientists and programmers work over creation new intellectual systems of the analysis of financial activity at the enterprise [8], which already baises  on new the combined methods.

Planned practical results

          The data wich had been received during the time of  working out the project give the full information on models of financial crisis which are planned to use further for creation of the most effective model.
It is planned to test new created method of an estimation financial crisis at the enterprise.

Conclusions

          There is a probability of crisis at the  enterprise  all the time. The crisis phenomena at the  enterprise  can be result of influence both internal and external, factors of its functioning and development. Therefore research of a financial condition at the enterprise is characterised by a problem of a choice of methods wich diagnoses level financial crisis.

Note: At the time of writing this abstract the master's work is not finished yet. The Final date is december 2009.The full text and materials on a theme can be received from the author or the leader of work  after the named date.

 

 Literature

1.Group INEK site-http://www.inec.ru/

2. Site of companies «PRO-invest»  - http://www.pro-invest.com/it

3. Official russiun site of  Microsof corporation-http://microsoft.ru

4.  Term  T.B. «Invention of intellectual system of the analysis of financial activity of the enterprise»- http://www.masters.donntu.ru/2005/kita/sroka/diss/index.htm#p2>

5. Klochkova A.I. «Working out of the combined method of an estimation of a financial condition of the enterprise»- http://www.masters.donntu.ru/2005/kita/klochkov/diss/